Will April Showers Rain on the Wall Street Excuse Parade? – Ep 68
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
Peter Schiff
4.6 • 5.9K Ratings
🗓️ 2 April 2015
⏱️ 25 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
* April Fool's Day and all the fools are buying U.S. stocks
* Atlanta Fed GDP Now Estimate for Q1 GDP finally down to zero
* Despite the fact that the economy is worse than the 2008 crisis, Wall Street expects a Q2 boom
* Last Q2 was boosted by Obamacare spending and inventory build
* No data supports wishful thinking that Q2 will stage a comeback
* U.S. corporate profits fell despite Wall Street gains
* Q4 corporate profits dropped by 3%
* Final revision for Q4 GDP held at 2%, weaker than expectations
* First back to back decline in March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment since October 2013
* Personal Income and Spending rose only .1%, missing expectations for 4th consecutive month
* Savings rate increased to 5.8%, contrary to Fed's objective to maintain spending bubble
* Savings increase is problematic for the Fed because it undermines the spending spree that masquerades as wealth
* The Fed will have to launch QE4 to encourage more spending
* The March Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index plunged by 17.4%- the sharpest 1-month decline since 2008
* Chicago PMI was below 50 in March - near 6 year lows
* March ADP numbers lowest in 14 months - biggest miss vs expected in 4 years
* March ISM Manufacturing Index dropped again to 51.5 - lowest level in 22 months - 5-month decline - first time since 2008
* Construction spending "unexpectedly fell"
* Zero might not be the floor for Q1 GDP
* Stock market weakening again - oil and gold up
* U.S. dollar no longer making new highs
* Everyone is going to come to the same conclusion at once triggering violent moves in the market
* Right now there are still people willing to buy the dollar, but eventually there will be no one to take the other side of those trades
* Countries with smaller balance sheets will start raising rates when dollar plunges and commodities rise
* Friday jobs number, the Fed's gauntlet, will start reflecting the rest of the bad economic news
* Rate hikes are so far into the future they are beyond QE4
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | About Peter Schiff Show. |
| 0:08.9 | Well it is Wednesday, April 1st, April Fools Day and all the Fools are buying US stocks. |
| 0:16.6 | Go Daddy after all these years. |
| 0:18.8 | Finally IPO today. |
| 0:20.4 | I had a nice first day pop. |
| 0:22.7 | I have no idea if Go Daddy actually makes any money. |
| 0:26.2 | I know they spend a lot of money on Super Bowl ads. |
| 0:30.7 | I want to get everybody up to date on a lot of the economic news that has come out since |
| 0:37.1 | the GDP numbers that came out on Friday. |
| 0:39.1 | I haven't actually done an economic podcast since Thursday. |
| 0:43.1 | We have a lot of economic news to catch you up on, which means a lot of bad news because |
| 0:47.4 | so much all of the news that has come out has been bad. |
| 0:51.3 | In fact, it's been so bad that this Atlanta Fed GDP now estimate for first quarter of |
| 0:58.1 | the GDP has finally moved all the way down to zero zero. |
| 1:04.4 | Now that might be overly optimistic. |
| 1:07.5 | We may end up with a negative number, but not too long ago that number was around two |
| 1:12.8 | and a half percent and of course most Wall Street economists were looking at three percent |
| 1:17.6 | or more. |
| 1:18.6 | In fact, even giving the horrific data that has come out thus far for the first quarter, |
| 1:26.3 | which came to an end yesterday. |
| 1:28.5 | The first quarter is now history. |
| 1:31.4 | We are now in the second quarter. |
... |
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