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Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box Score

Wide Receiver Advanced Stats (12/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box Score

CBS Sports

Sports, Football

4.9722 Ratings

🗓️ 18 December 2021

⏱️ 6 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Are you considering starting Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Green or Van Jefferson? We'll tell you what the advanced stats say.

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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Three wide receivers that you didn't think you'd be starting in your fantasy playoff matchup,

0:08.2

well, you might have good reason to do so. We'll tell you about it right now on fantasy football

0:11.5

today in five. Time to look at the advanced stats with our Jacob Gibbs. I'm Adam Azar here

0:16.9

with your Saturday edition of Fantasy Football Today in Five. Thanks so much for tuning in everybody. Let's get a win. Let's hope these games actually get played. Okay, first guy we're talking about is Amonra St. Brown coming off a couple of good performances. PBR stud lately. Can you do it again, Jacob? Yeah, definitely a PBR stud. 20 catches in the last two games, 12 targets in each of those games. Yeah, I'm really liking

0:39.3

this spot here for St. Brown. And I think if you are somebody who's going to be using the Arizona

0:45.1

receivers, particularly in DFS, you should be bringing back with St. Brown because like for Arizona

0:52.0

to remain aggressive through the air, it's going to need, you know, it's going to require to try to put some points on the board. And I'm not sure

0:57.8

how they're going to do that without T.J. Hawkinson and probably D'Andre Swift, the most likely way is St. Brown. So I really like the correlation here. We've seen him just really targeted a high rate. he's one of just five players with a target share above 30% over the past two games.

1:12.2

And I think that's going to continue.

1:13.9

I mean, there's, there's, a high rate. He's one of just five players with a target share above 30% over the past two games.

1:12.2

And I think that's going to continue. I mean, they just don't have very many options.

1:15.9

And then he's also facing an Arizona defense that really suits his route tree well.

1:20.8

They really keep everything in front of them and funnel, you know, short and intermediate targets.

1:24.9

And that's, of course, you know, the type of routes that St.

1:27.7

Brown is running. He's got a 6.64 yard average depth of target on the year, which is right in

1:34.5

line with Arizona's opponent average depth of target of 6.55. So I think everything lines up really

1:41.2

well for another high volume game from St. Brown. It might not be super efficienting. Arizona does have a pretty good defense, and Detroit could struggle to put any points on the board. But if they are going to do it, I think it'll be through the rookie. And if you are going with a wide receiver for the Arizona Cardinals, which one would you choose? I think Kirk projects better, and I think he's going to be the more popular play in DFS, and I think that makes sense. But I think it's important to not forget about AJ Green. I think he actually brings a lot of upside in this matchup. You know, you never want to place a bet on AJ Green. He's been one of the least efficient receivers in the NFL for the last couple of years, particularly on deep targets, which is what we're going to focus on here. In this match against Detroit, the reason that we're focused on green is because the lions have just been targeted downfield at the highest rate in the NFL all year long.

2:26.3

In neutral situations, they've led the NFL in average depth of target by their opponents the entire season.

2:31.3

It's not been close.

2:33.3

And they've also given up, you know, yards at a really high rate and completion at a really high rate on those targets. And we saw when Hopkins was out earlier this season, Green was actually the player who saw his target per out run rate rise the most. He had the highest target per route run rate on the team, but I think it went a little overlooked because he didn't convert into yards as efficiently as Christian Kirk did. But he saw the bigger boost of the two, and he also is the one who has a much deeper route tree. He had, you know, led the team in air yards when Hopkins was out as well. So I think everything lines up well for him to be targeted aggressively down to this matchup. And if there's any secondary capable of boosting green's efficiency, it is Detroit's. The only real question mark is how often is Arizona going to have to attack downfield? But when they do, it should be to green. And I think he actually could come down with some big catches here. All right. Let's talk about Van Jefferson. This game is actually going to be played on Tuesday against the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks have given up one touchdown to a wide receiver in their last nine games. But they did struggle with Brandon Cooks last week. It was their first game without Jamal Adams. I'm excited to start Van Jefferson, even with the touchdown stat that I just gave. Should I be? I think you should be.

3:41.5

Yeah, I think he's someone that you should feel, you know,

3:43.7

relatively comfortable starting in your fantasy playoff match of this week.

...

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