Why This Crypto Cycle is Over | Michael Nadeau's DeFi Report #7

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4.7 • 1.2K Ratings

🗓️ 21 October 2025

⏱️ 79 minutes

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Summary

Is the crypto cycle already over, or is this just a reset before one last push? Michael Nadeau from The DeFi Report joins Ryan to break down why he went 70% cash ahead of the flash crash, what late-cycle data he’s watching, and the signals that would flip him back risk on. We dig into Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average, ETH’s $8–10K scenarios, slowing ETF flows, rising leverage, and whether global liquidity and AI could still drive a melt-up. Michael explains why this cycle has felt muted, what would confirm a top, and how he’s positioning into year-end. Michael Nadeau & The DeFi Report: https://x.com/JustDeauIt https://thedefireport.io/ ------ 📣BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH-FIRST PUBLIC COMPAN https://bankless.cc/bit-digital We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🪙FRAXNET | MINT, REDEEM, EARN https://bankless.cc/fraxnet 🦄UNISWAP | SWAP ON UNICHAIN https://bankless.cc/unichain 🛞MANTLE | MODULAR L2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle 🌳KGEN | REQUEST A DEMO https://bankless.cc/KGEN-podcast 💠BIT DIGITAL ($BTBT) | ETH TREASURY https://bankless.cc/bit-digital We’re being compensated by Bit Digital (NASDAQ BTBT) for this segment promoting their company and BTBT. The compensation is paid in cash as a one time payment. You can find additional information about Bit Digital and BTBT on their Investor page at https://bit-digital.com/investors ------ TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES 0:00 Intro 0:48 Crypto Cycle: Is It Over? Mike's Risk-Off Strategy https://thedefireport.io/research/portfolio-update 2:15 Flash Crash Insights 3:14 Crypto Investor Profiles https://thedefireport.io/ 5:40 Understanding Market Cycles https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index 7:34 Late Cycle Analysis https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index 12:41 Shifting to Risk Off https://thedefireport.io/research/portfolio-update 18:54 On-Chain Data Insights https://thedefireport.io/research/where-might-eth-top#scenario-analysis-for-eth 21:47 Stages of the Cycle https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index 26:12 Wealth Distribution Phase https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index 28:15 Realized Profits Comparison https://thedefireport.io/research/cycle-awareness-update#fear-greed-index 32:00 Global Liquidity Discussion https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/1977140156386660654 https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/1977498706510487748 33:52 Gold vs. Bitcoin https://x.com/merlijntrader/status/1978793051062509966 1:01:52 The Shittiest Bull Market Ever https://x.com/cryptorbion/status/1979614717707489461 1:08:31 What Would Change Mike's Mind? https://www.coinglass.com/bull-market-peak-signals 1:17:14 Future of the DeFi Report https://thedefireport.io/research/portfolio-update https://thedefireport.io/ ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

Transcript

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0:00.0	Bangless Nation today, we're going to talk about the crypto cycle. Is it over? Mike Nato thinks it is.
0:09.7	And he joins me today. Mike Nato, of course, is from the Defi Report. Usually we put these episodes out every month or so. We're doing this one a little bit early because there have been some big changes that Mike I want to
0:21.5	get your take on how you doing I'm doing great great to be here right all right so things feel
0:26.5	pretty uncertain in crypto right now feels like it could go either way either we get a resumption of the
0:31.9	bull markets or this has been the end of the cycle and maybe we're into a bear market. If this cycle is over,
0:40.6	though, I will say it will be different. It will have played out differently than previous.
0:45.2	But if it extends into 2026, that's also different. And I know your position is basically,
0:51.9	you're now risk off in crypto. So primarily overweighted risk off. And I believe
0:58.3	this is the first time you've been risk off in crypto this cycle. So like the first time since
1:03.6	2022. Is that correct? That is correct. Yeah. We've been probably too long for a very long period of
1:10.8	time and have been kind of like
1:12.8	scaling out of the market a little bit as, you know, as we go through the last few years,
1:17.7	particularly Q4, Q1 of this year.
1:22.3	And our view has been that we would top sometime in Q4.
1:26.7	And we've been sort of evaluating both, you know,
1:30.8	sort of left-tail risk of cycle being over, things rolling over, and also potentially right-tail
1:36.0	risk of sort of a melt-up. And we can kind of go through how I've been thinking about sort of the
1:41.2	risks in both directions kind of as we go today. Yeah, I want to talk to you about that because you actually, you called the flash crash.
1:47.7	So I got a notice from the Defi report, and this was like earlier in the morning on October 10th.
1:53.2	This is before like shit really hit the fan that day.
1:56.1	And you were like, hey, I'm risk off.
1:58.5	So you saw some things before the flash crash.
	...

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