4.4 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 1 August 2023
⏱️ 26 minutes
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0:00.0 | More than any other advanced economy, the UK has been squeezed by sharply higher prices. |
0:05.5 | But new data shows that inflation may be starting to fall. |
0:08.6 | So has British inflation finally turned a corner? |
0:11.6 | The UK faces a real confluence of shocks that we've seen in other regions. |
0:18.0 | We have core inflation still close to 6% by the end of the year, |
0:22.0 | which is quite a bit above where we see it in both the US and the year area. |
0:26.0 | I'm Allison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs exchanges. To help break down the drivers behind the UK's inflation problem, its implications for the economy and markets, and the impact |
0:45.2 | for consumers and investors, I'm speaking with my colleagues in Goldman Sachs research, |
0:49.8 | Yari Stain, our chief European economist, and George Cole, had a European rate strategy. |
0:55.2 | Yari, George, welcome back to the program. |
0:57.0 | Hi, Allison. |
0:58.0 | Thank you. |
0:59.0 | So we have talked so much on this podcast about the inflation problem that most of the developed |
1:04.2 | world has been grappling with but the UK has stood out in terms of the severity |
1:09.1 | of its inflation problem. Why is inflation so high, Yari? |
1:13.0 | Well, it's certainly true that the UK stands out here. |
1:16.0 | Headline inflation is at 8%, core inflation around 7, |
1:20.0 | so that's notably above where both the US and the Euro area are now. |
1:25.0 | I would say the big picture reason is effectively that the UK faces a real confluence of shocks that we've seen in other regions. So basically in the |
1:36.3 | US you have a classic access demand issue, a tight labor market that's pushed up |
1:41.2 | wage growth and inflation and the Fed basically needs |
1:43.9 | to lean against that. In the euro area you've seen an enormous energy supply |
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