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Short Wave

Why The Tropics Have A Weather Forecasting Problem

Short Wave

NPR

Daily News, Nature, Life Sciences, Astronomy, Science, News

4.76K Ratings

🗓️ 10 October 2025

⏱️ 15 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Weather in the tropics is decidedly different than it is in the middle latitudes. It turns out, so are the weather systems – the factors that create things like the daily temperature and humidity! Historically, most weather forecasting models have been based on data from high-income countries in the northern hemisphere. But different factors drive weather and climate near the equator – meaning that these weather forecast models are much less accurate at predicting weather in the tropics. This has implications for storm readiness, flooding preparedness and more.

Atmospheric scientist Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza is aiming to change that. His research focuses on how water vapor – humidity – plays a key role in tropical weather systems. It’s earned him a spot as one of this year’s Macarthur Fellows. 

Interested in more science about how weather happens? Email us your question at [email protected].
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0:45.4

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0:48.8

Speaking of, let's get on with it.

0:50.3

Here's the episode.

0:51.7

You're listening to Shortwave from NPR.

0:56.5

Anhal Adamas Corlisa grew up in San Sebastian on the northwest side of Puerto Rico.

1:01.8

So from childhood, he was used to windy weather, thunderstorms, heavy rain.

1:06.5

But nothing really prepared him for Hurricane George in 1998.

1:11.5

So in Puerto Rico, we cannot evacuate from hurricanes because we're on an island.

1:16.0

So we had to kind of weather the hurricane.

1:18.9

So we were up all night.

1:19.9

And I just remember the winds roaring and the house shaking.

1:24.0

My family had to put these, like, wooden panels to protect the windows and the doors.

1:29.1

And I remember like the wind just hitting those doors.

1:32.4

And that really left an impression on me.

1:35.0

That hurricane really etched into his memory.

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