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Odd Lots

Why the IMF Changed Its Views on Capital Controls

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

Business, News, News Commentary, Investing, Business News

4.52K Ratings

🗓️ 7 December 2020

⏱️ 54 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

For years, the IMF was generally of the view that free trade was good, and that open capital flows were also good. But in recent years, the latter view has started to change. Increasingly the IMF, while continuing to promote openness, has viewed restricting the capital account for emerging markets as a useful tactical macro tool. On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Prakash Loungani and Sriram Balasubramanian of the IMF's Independent Evaluation Office on their examination of the IMF's work, and how its perspective has changed over the last several years. 

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Transcript

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0:00.0

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0:15.8

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0:21.2

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0:22.3

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0:25.8

Bloomberg Live.com slash automation slash radio. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast I'm Tracey Alaway. So Tracy Alaway. So Tracy, evolution of economic thought is a big topic for us especially this year a lot of

0:56.3

discussion and about monetary policy fiscal policy one of our recurring themes no doubt.

1:03.0

Yeah, I mean, it feels like a lot of these conversations had begun even before 2020,

1:09.0

but this year is kind of the one that makes everyone start taking them or at least talking about them seriously.

1:15.6

So things like modern monetary theory once considered very, very heterodox are now, I mean,

1:21.6

now you see certain U. certain US politicians talking about it, the idea of a greater role for fiscal policy alongside money policy.

1:30.0

There are a lot of standard thoughts that are being overturned or at the beginning of being overturned maybe

1:37.7

Right some some stage of evolution we haven't really I mean we've done a little bit but we haven't really, I mean we've done a little bit, but we haven't really taken this sort of theme of evolution, however, within the context of say emerging markets or we haven't really done as much on it. We've done a little actually but not that much yet.

1:56.4

Yeah, so emerging markets this year were pretty interesting clearly under a lot of stress because these are the countries that are dealing with a huge

2:05.2

caseload of the virus, the coronavirus, and also dealing with the economic fallout of everything that's going on in the rest of the world.

2:14.6

So it feels like they're sort of getting this double whammy of maybe not having as great health

2:19.2

systems as a lot of the developed world, but still having to deal with the economic impacts.

2:25.6

So, you know, back in March, remember like EM looked like it was very much in trouble.

2:32.3

Yeah, you know, I really do think, and it's not exactly what we're going to be talking about today,

2:37.0

but I do think one of the themes from 2020 that's going to be interesting in retrospect

2:42.0

and with pretty important implications is whether various

2:45.4

EMs have more policy flexibility than previously appreciated, whether it's their ability

2:51.1

to do quantitative easing, whether it's their ability to run fiscal deficits.

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