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Forbes Daily Briefing

Why The Gold Stock Rally Isn’t Over Yet

Forbes Daily Briefing

Forbes

Tech News, News, Business

4.418 Ratings

🗓️ 21 January 2026

⏱️ 4 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Gold and gold miners posted huge gains last year, leaving investors to wonder if they missed the move. A longtime gold fund manager says this cycle looks different and miner margins could hold up.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Here's your Forbes Daily Briefing Bonus Story of the week. Today on Forbes, why the gold stock rally isn't over yet.

0:11.0

Gold had a big year. The yellow metal surged from $2,600 per ounce to start the year to over $4,300 by the end of it for a 65% return.

0:24.3

Gold mining stocks did even better.

0:26.8

The Vanek Gold Miners ETF, $29 billion in assets, rose by 155%.

0:33.3

After moves like that, a reasonable question comes up.

0:38.6

Is it too late to jump on board?

0:41.8

Daniel Oliver says no.

0:44.4

Oliver runs the Mermican Gold Fund, which launched in 2010, and as of a 2023 filing,

0:50.8

managed about $30 million in assets.

0:53.9

Now, Oliver, it should be noted, is a committed gold advocate, not a neutral observer.

1:00.6

But in a research note published last week, he argues that the gold trade is still early.

1:06.3

More importantly, he says the usual problem for gold miners, rising costs that crush margins,

1:12.3

aren't a foregone conclusion.

1:15.1

His argument starts by looking backward.

1:17.8

Gold didn't lead markets during the bubble years.

1:20.4

In 2024, speculative trades dominated returns.

1:24.7

Big tech stocks surged.

1:26.5

Bitcoin soared. Gold rose too, but it lagged riskier assets.

1:31.8

Mining stocks lagged even more. That pattern flipped in 2025. Speculative, so-called

1:39.0

quote, risk-on assets cooled or retraced their prior moves. Gold, on the other hand, moved to the front.

1:47.8

Mining stocks followed. Oliver says that shift matters because gold tends to perform best

1:53.5

when credit is tightening, evidenced by the decline in speculative assets, not expanding.

...

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