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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Why Technology is Not a Bubble

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 7 August 2018

⏱️ 28 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Is there a bubble in technology? Goldman Sachs Research's Peter Oppenheimer doesn't think so. Despite the recent stumbles in some of tech's biggest names, the sector continues to dominate global stock indexes. "The thing that's really set apart [today's] technology revolution as we're seeing it expressed in the stock market since the financial crisis is that these companies have been very successful," says Oppenheimer. "They've been very dominant in terms of returns, but they've also been extraordinarily successful in terms of their earnings power, and their valuations have not become that extreme." Oppenheimer draws attention to just how large the tech sector has become by comparing tech companies' valuations to country GDPs and discusses the challenges facing today's most dominant players. This podcast was recorded on July 19, 2018. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2018 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved.

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is exchanges at Goldman Sachs where we discuss developments currently shaping markets, industries,

0:13.6

and the global economy.

0:14.6

I'm Jake Stewart, global head of corporate communications here at the firm.

0:18.4

Today we're talking about perhaps the most dominant industry of the past decade,. The tech sectors enjoyed tremendous growth

0:24.6

post-financial crisis, but with that comes the question, are we in a bubble or is

0:29.0

this sustainable? Joining us in the studio today is Peter Oppenheimer, Global Equity Strategist

0:34.9

and head of macro research in Europe. Peter and his team recently published a

0:38.6

report titled Why Technology is Not a Bubble, Lessons from History.

0:42.4

Peter, welcome to the program. Thank you Jay, good to be technology is not a bubble, lessons from history.

0:42.6

Peter, welcome to the program.

0:44.1

Thank you, Jake.

0:44.7

Good to be here.

0:45.8

So let's start by understanding how we got here.

0:47.6

Obviously, your title is deliberately provocative.

0:50.3

Since the financial crisis, what's been driving the dramatic rise of the tech sector?

0:55.0

Well I think there are a number of things.

0:57.0

I mean firstly we should say that growth as a factor has been outperforming significantly in equity markets for the whole period since the financial crisis

1:05.8

and technology is a big part of that and I think one of the reasons is because actually it's been

1:11.1

quite a weak economic recovery globally and that's

1:14.6

typically what you see after a deleveraging cycle in a banking sector. It's also

1:20.6

been a very disjointed economic recovery because of the extent to which it moved initially from the US in 2008 and then to the European crisis in 2011 onwards and then finally EM in 2015-16. So globally we had

1:37.1

weak growth we had weak profit growth and therefore investors have been prepared

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