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The Compound and Friends

Why Technical Trading Signals Stopped Working (with Barry and John Roque)

The Compound and Friends

Josh Brown

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.72.2K Ratings

🗓️ 19 November 2019

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

John Roque joins Barry Ritholtz at The Compound to explain why technical trading signals stopped working and how he has adapted his trading style to the new landscape. Follow John Roque on Twitter: https://twitter.com/WolfeDailyHowl 1-click play or subscribe on your favorite podcast app   Subscribe to the mini podcast on iTunes or Spotify    Enable our Alexa skill here - "Alexa, play the Compound show!"   Talk to us about your portfolio or financial plan here:  http://ritholtzwealth.com/   Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice just for you or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Please see this 3,000 word terms & conditions disclaimer: https://thereformedbroker.com/terms-and-conditions/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm here with John Roach, a famed technical analyst who used to work for Soros Fund,

0:07.0

consistently top-ranked in the Institutional Investor Technical Group.

0:11.0

John, welcome to the compound.

0:13.0

Thanks for having me here, Barry.

0:14.0

So let's talk a little bit about the sort of technical analysis you do.

0:19.0

I've described it as one part, part, technicals.

0:24.0

Tell us a little bit about your form of technical analysis.

0:27.0

So I hope I'm not an apostate by saying this,

0:30.0

but what I figured out over time is that most technical indicators don't have the gravitas that they had in prior cycles.

0:37.0

And the reason I believe that is because in prior cycles, it was mostly a retail business and most of the trading was done on the floor.

0:45.0

So all the indicators that were developed were developed in prior cycles when all that occurred and that no longer occurs.

0:50.0

So we've tried to eliminate our reliance on indicators and concentrate more on price.

0:57.0

And that's the reason we have this four input item that just is based on price alone.

1:02.0

What sort of indicators do you think have lost their resonance with the trading crowd?

1:08.0

Well, for example, very often you will get deterioration in momentum indicators and long-term

1:13.6

momentum indicators which historically would have said wait a second the

1:16.7

environment is changing but with 15% of the volume coming from active managers and

1:22.4

85% of the volume coming from active managers and 85% of the volume coming from

1:23.8

what's called them passive or not active managers is it that much that's a

1:28.2

giant I've heard the numbers I don't keep those numbers but numbers I've heard are of that magnitude. We figure

1:34.8

that the indicators have less importance because there's less people creating what's

1:39.3

occurring in the indicator. For example it used to be fairly easier to divine market

...

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