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Bankless

Why Recessions Are Dead & How to Invest in The Debasement Era | Macro Investor Vincent Deluard

Bankless

[email protected]

Tech News, News, Technology

4.81.1K Ratings

🗓️ 15 September 2025

⏱️ 94 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Why do recessions feel like a relic of the past? Macro strategist Vincent Deluard argues we’ve entered an era where fiscal dominance, structural inflation, and relentless asset debasement reshape how capital flows and how investors must position themselves. We cover the U.S. supercycle, the role of tech and energy, why the “2% inflation target” is dead, and what a portfolio looks like in the age of permanent stimulus. ------ 📣SPOTIFY PREMIUM RSS FEED | USE CODE: SPOTIFY24  https://bankless.cc/spotify-premium ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🪙FRAX | SELF SUFFICIENT DeFi https://bankless.cc/Frax 🦄UNISWAP | SWAP ON UNICHAIN https://bankless.cc/unichain 🛞MANTLE | MODULAR LAYER 2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle 🎩DEGEN | JOIN THE COMMUNITY https://bankless.cc/degen ------ TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 3:33 The Next 10 Years 5:47 The Mind of a Pension Fund Manager 8:25 US Dominance 26:17 Dominance Shift 37:21 AI Bubble? 41:19 Inflationary Forces 52:40 Inflationista Thesis 58:36 Fiscal Dominance 1:03:38 Trump vs The Fed 1:09:41 Are Debt Cycles Inevitable? 1:12:26 Are Recessions Dead? 1:20:27 Portfolio Construction 1:26:21 Emerging Markets 1:33:45 Gold 1:37:42 Closing & Disclaimers ------ RESOURCES Vincent Deluard https://x.com/vincentdeluard  StoneX https://www.stonex.com/en/  ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠

Transcript

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0:00.0

If you think of recession as a 2,000-mile-like event where we'll see, you know,

0:04.0

sub 1% inflation print, massive job losses, 10% of apartment trade,

0:08.4

I really don't think it's going to happen.

0:10.5

We have this kind of hyperactive policy making where the Fed cuts just because inflation

0:15.7

might slow below the 2% target in 12 months based on some, you know, number that, you know, they made up.

0:25.6

Welcome to bankless, where we explore the frontier of internet money and internet finance.

0:30.0

It's just me today. David's out, so I'm here to help you become more bankless.

0:34.9

I came into this episode with, I think, one question. What is the ultimate portfolio

0:39.9

for the debasement era? Aside from crypto, of course. Vincent Deloard is a macro investor. He's the

0:46.2

guest today. He advises the big, big money, the sovereign wealth funds, the pension funds on what to

0:52.8

buy and how to weather these storms. I think he shares

0:55.7

a similar thesis to many of us in crypto, but he comes to a different conclusion on what to buy.

1:01.9

A few things we discuss. Persistent inflation? The 15-year dominance of U.S. capital markets and

1:07.8

why he thinks that's peaked. Investing in China and India and why

1:11.7

that's a good idea. Fiscal dominance. Why recessions are dead. The Meg 7 concentration,

1:18.2

AI bubbles. Gold, all-time highs. And of course, we discuss crypto. Stay tuned to the end for his

1:24.7

takes on the debasement-resistant portfolio. Let's get to the episode, but before we do, I want to think of the sponsors that made this possible. Imagine a world where traditional finance meets the power of blockchain seamlessly. That's what Mantle is pioneering, with blockchain for banking, a revolutionary new category at the intersection of Tradfai and Web 3. At the heart is you are, the world's first money app built fully on chain. It gives you a Swiss I-Band account, blending fiaturacies like the Euro, the Swiss franc, the United States dollar, or the Rimini with crypto, all in one place. Enjoy real-world usability and blockchain's trust and programmability. Transactions post directly to the blockchain, compatible with TradFi Rails, and packed with integrated DFI futures.

2:02.5

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2:05.1

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2:13.0

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...

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