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Channels with Peter Kafka

Why Prediction Markets Are Turning Everything Into a Bet

Channels with Peter Kafka

Vox Media Podcast Network

Technology, Tv & Film, Business News, News

4.4585 Ratings

🗓️ 25 March 2026

⏱️ 46 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Prediction markets are suddenly everywhere: in sports, in politics, in the media business — and, depending on who you ask, they’re either a useful forecasting tool or just gambling with better branding. So what changed? And why is the federal government sounding more like a booster than a regulator? WIRED’s Kate Knibbs joins me to explain why she made prediction markets her beat, how Kalshi and Polymarket went mainstream, why Trump-world is so friendly to them, why some states are trying to stop them, and what happens when more and more of public life gets turned into a bet. We also talk about media companies cutting deals with prediction-market firms, the blurry rules around insider trading, and why this story is really about the casino-fication of everything. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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1:04.9

From the Vox Media Podcast Network, this is channels of Peter Kafka.

1:09.9

That is me.

1:14.6

I'm also chief correspondent at Business Insider. And today we are talking about the gambling industry, except it's not called the gambling industry.

1:19.6

Instead, it's called the boom business for prediction markets, which have gone from super niche to super mainstream in the last couple years.

1:28.3

There are many signs that prediction markets are a big deal or potentially a big deal,

1:32.9

including inescapable marketing campaigns and sky-high valuations for companies like Calci and Polymarket.

1:39.9

Another indicator, Kate Nibs, the excellent reporter at Wired,

1:43.8

has started covering prediction markets full time after proposing the idea to her editors.

1:49.6

So this is one of those, Peter has a lot of questions for an expert episodes.

1:53.9

And I do have a lot of questions about prediction markets starting with, why now?

...

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