Why Iran’s Regime Isn’t Falling (w/ Tim Mak)
Bulwark Takes
The Bulwark
4.7 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 13 March 2026
⏱️ 45 minutes
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Summary
JVL is joined by war reporter Tim Mak to discuss the rapidly escalating conflict with Iran and what it means for the United States, Ukraine, and global stability. They examine why the Iranian regime may be more durable than many assume, the strategic limits of military strikes, and how rising oil prices are shaping political decisions in Washington.
Read more from Tim Mak at The Counteroffensive: https://www.counteroffensive.news/
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hello, friends. I'm JVL and I am joined today by Tim Mack from the counteroffensive here on Substack, one of my favorite Substack publications. |
| 0:11.6 | And so Tim went to, if you don't know his backstory, he went over to Ukraine basically as soon as the war broke out years ago now and became, I think, the most indispensable person |
| 0:23.0 | on Substack reporting on the ground from Ukraine day in and day out. His stuff's been invaluable. |
| 0:31.2 | And he stood up, as he was just telling us, a pop-up publication about Iran. And so Tim, tell me where do they, |
| 0:42.6 | where can they get it? If they just go to the counteroffensive, can they go from there? Do they have to go follow and do another click? |
| 0:48.9 | The best way to find our boarding on Iran is at Iranwar. News. And it's on substack as Iran war dispatches. |
| 0:59.3 | But if you go to Iranwar.com, you'll be able to find our latest obsessive reporting on Iran. |
| 1:06.6 | But with the counteroffensive style, which the counteroffensive has really been about human interest reporting. |
| 1:12.6 | And so we've brought that over to Iran's storytelling. So for Iran war dispatches, we are covering how Iranian farmers are dealing with the ecological effects of these attacks on oil holding sites in Tehran. |
| 1:29.1 | There's been this black rain phenomenon that you may have heard of that's been occurring. |
| 1:33.0 | I haven't. Tell me about it. |
| 1:34.6 | This black rain phenomenon following the bombing of IRGC oil depots, |
| 1:42.7 | there's been reports that we received, and from our sources, photos of black |
| 1:49.3 | rain falling in Tehran. Basically, the oil and the smoke and the ecological impact of what's |
| 1:59.7 | happened is really affecting farmers in that region, |
| 2:03.1 | which have already been devastated by a drought. |
| 2:06.3 | You could argue that actually the genesis of a lot of what we're seeing in Iran right now |
| 2:10.7 | isn't necessarily the protests that happened last year or the Israeli bombing as part of the 12-day |
| 2:20.1 | war or the strikes that are ongoing right now, what really is the genesis of all the upheaval |
| 2:26.3 | in Iran is the drought, as simple as that, is that access to water has been extremely, |
| 2:32.7 | extremely limited. The Iranian government even talked about moving the capital outside of Tehran because of the access to water being such a problem. |
| 2:41.7 | And that access to water being a problem has led to dramatic increases in the price of everything, right? |
... |
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