Why Iran Believes It Has the Upper Hand

The Ezra Klein Show

New York Times Opinion

News, Government, Society & Culture

4.3 • 14.5K Ratings

🗓️ 3 April 2026

⏱️ 62 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In a prime time address on Wednesday, President Trump proclaimed that America was “on the cusp of ending Iran’s sinister threat.” But he also kept open the option of boots on the ground. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is also about to start really biting – as countries get hit with shortages, which would spike prices across the globe. So what are Trump’s options? What would happen if he just declared victory and walked away from the fight? What kinds of military operations are on the table? If Trump ended the war without achieving his strategic goals, what would that mean for the United States, for Iran and for the world? “I don’t see a victory in real terms at the end of this crisis…,” Suzanne Maloney told me. “And that is a very dangerous outcome for the long term.” Maloney is one of Washington’s leading Iran experts. She has advised several presidential administrations and has written or edited a number of books on Iran. She is the vice president and director of the Brookings Institution’s foreign policy program. Note: This conversation was recorded on Wednesday morning, before Trump’s speech on the war. But the speech reflected Maloney’s analysis almost perfectly. Mentioned: The Iranian Revolution at Forty by Suzanne Maloney President Trump Addresses Nation on War with Iran “Trump tells Post war against Iran won’t last ‘much longer’ —Strait of Hormuz will reopen ‘automatically’ after US exit” by Steven Nelson Book Recommendations: The Twilight War by David Crist American Hostages in Iran by Warren Christopher and Paul H. Kreisberg Democracy in Iran by Misagh Parsa Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com. You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs. This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris with Kate Sinclair and Mary Marge Locker. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Aman Sahota. Our executive producer is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Marie Cascione, Annie Galvin, Kristin Lin, Emma Kehlbeck, Jack McCordick, Marina King and Jan Kobal. Original music by Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The director of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser.

Transcript

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0:00.0	The
0:07.0	The What is the status of America's war with Iran?
0:34.1	If you are trying to follow it through what President Trump is saying, you are going to be,
0:40.2	I have become hopelessly lost. Trump, within a single day, will veer wildly between saying
0:48.1	the war is almost over and that he's preparing to escalate it dramatically, that negotiations
0:53.4	are going great and that there's no one escalate it dramatically, that negotiations are going great,
0:55.1	and that there's no one to talk to.
0:57.5	That Iran must open the Strait of Hormuz,
1:00.9	and that America doesn't care if it's closed.
1:04.0	On Wednesday night, in a nationally televised address,
1:07.9	Trump sought to finally clear the fog,
1:10.2	to make the path forward clear to the American
1:13.4	people and to our allies.
1:15.7	I've made clear from the beginning of Operation Epic Fury that we will continue until our
1:21.2	objectives are fully achieved. Thanks to the progress we've made, I can say tonight that we
1:27.2	are on track to complete all of America's military objectives shortly, very shortly.
1:33.3	We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks.
1:38.3	We're going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong.
1:43.3	It's all hard to say which goals exactly we've achieved.
1:46.0	Because from another perspective, Iran seems to think it's winning this war.
1:50.0	regime has survived.
1:51.0	It has learned how much power it can exert over the world economy by choking off the strait of Hormuz.
	...

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