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The Take

Why Iran believes it can outlast the US

The Take

Al Jazeera

Politics, Daily News, News, News Commentary

4.7747 Ratings

🗓️ 31 March 2026

⏱️ 23 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Iran appears to believe it can survive this war. That calculation may be shaping its stance on a ceasefire, even as strikes continue and talk of US troops on the ground is growing. Why does Iran think it’s winning, and what would Tehran need to agree to stop fighting?

In this episode: 

  • Alex Vatanka (@alexvatanka), Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute 

Episode credits:

This episode was produced by David Enders and Tamara Khandaker with Tuleen Barakat, Catherine Nouhan, and our guest host, Kevin Hirten. It was edited by Alexandra Locke. 

Our sound designer is Alex Roldan. Our video editors are Hisham Abu Salah and Mohannad al-Melhem. Alexandra Locke is The Take’s executive producer. 

Connect with us:

@AJEPodcasts on XInstagramFacebook, and YouTube

Transcript

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0:00.0

Al Jazeera Podcasts.

0:07.0

Today, Iran prepares for further U.S. escalation.

0:15.7

From Tehran accusations, from the Speaker of Parliament that the U.S. is preparing a ground offensive.

0:21.9

That's despite President Trump's talk of negotiations.

0:25.7

As things escalate in the region, what would Iran need to agree to a ceasefire?

0:33.6

I'm Kevin Horton, and this is The Take.

0:46.4

Hi, before we continue with today's show,

0:50.0

remember to leave us a comment telling us what you think about this episode.

0:53.1

Do you think there's a ceasefire coming anytime soon?

0:55.5

And what stories do you want us to do next?

0:58.4

And remember, when you're on your favorite podcast app,

1:01.6

leave us a review, telling us where you're listening from.

1:03.2

And give us a five-star rating.

1:04.6

It does help the show.

1:14.0

Alex Fadaka, I'm a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., and I focus on Iranian affairs.

1:22.2

Alex, welcome to the take. So your work, as you said, you focus on Iran's relationship with the U.S. and its neighbors.

1:25.9

So you're a very good person to be talking to at this moment.

1:29.1

We're coming off another weekend of escalation,

1:34.6

right? Strikes on sites across the Gulf. Infrastructure in Iran is still being targeted.

1:40.8

Donald Trump saying out loud that he could take the oil in Iran. And oh, yes, there's this looming threat of American boots on the ground. So I feel like there's a lot of coverage of Donald Trump and his state of mind from day to day, how he might want to end the war.

1:51.4

But I'm hoping that our discussion can focus mainly on Iran itself.

1:56.1

And one thing I keep reading is that the war is continuing because both sides feel they're winning.

...

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