Why Everyone Is Wrong About AI (Including You) | Benedict Evans
The Knowledge Project
Shane Parrish
4.7 • 2.9K Ratings
🗓️ 2 September 2025
⏱️ 72 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | It seems to me right now you could do like a double-blind test of the same prompt given to |
| 0:04.6 | Grock, Claude, Gemini, Mistral, Deep Seek. I bet most people wouldn't be able to tell which |
| 0:10.7 | is which. Benedict Evans is a technology analyst known for his insightful takes on platform shifts |
| 0:16.3 | in the tech industry. He sees AI differently than others. He's spent decades spotting patterns others miss |
| 0:23.3 | and dives into how people really use AI. Why is it that somebody looks at this and gets it and goes |
| 0:29.4 | back every week, but only every week? The very high-level threat to Google is that you have this |
| 0:35.1 | moment of discontinuity in which everybody resets their |
| 0:38.0 | priors that we consider their defaults. And so it's no longer just the default that you go and use Google. |
| 0:42.7 | There's this sort of question for Apple around, does this net actually change the experience of what a smartphone is, what the ecosystem is? |
| 0:50.5 | Does it end up kind of getting Microsofted in the sense that... |
| 0:55.0 | I want to start with your most controversial take on AI? |
| 1:07.5 | It's funny. I suppose my take on AI, controversial take on AI, rather like my |
| 1:12.2 | controversial take on crypto as being a centrist, in that it seems to me very clear this is |
| 1:20.4 | like the biggest thing since the iPhone, but I also think it's only the biggest thing since the |
| 1:25.7 | iPhone. And there's a bunch of people who think, |
| 1:28.9 | no, it's much more than that. It's a minimum. It's more like computing. And then you've got |
| 1:34.7 | people going around saying, no, this is more like, you know, the electricity or the industrial |
| 1:38.4 | evolution or, you know, transhumanists or something. My sort of base case is to say, this is kind of another platform shift, |
| 1:46.3 | and all the new stuff will be built around this for the next 10 or 15 years, and then there'll be |
| 1:50.5 | something else. And so the impact on employment will be kind of like the impact on employment |
| 1:56.3 | from the other platform shifts and the impact on the economy and productivity and intellectual property. |
| 2:01.7 | And there'll be a whole bunch of different weird new questions, just like there were a bunch |
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