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Today the recession versus reality

As most people know the US economy is in a recession

Last fall three quarters of voters told CNN that the US was in a recession

A Bloomberg economic model said the odds of a recession by the fall of 2023 was 100 percent

These numbers are a little bit strange because

We are not in a recession

We're actually not even close

The unemployment rate today is lower than any month since the 1960s

Real disposable income is growing the economy is expanding consumer spending is strong even housing

Seems to be rebounding

So why is everybody not just normal people but professional economists too so convinced by so obsessed with this idea that we are either in or at the precipice of a recession

I have two theories

The first theory is what I've called the

Everything is terrible, but I'm fine philosophy

If you ask Americans about how the broader economy is going or whether American schools have gotten to political or whether

America is on the right track or whether they trust the media capital T capital M the media

When you ask about the states of things broadly

...