Why Didn’t the Fed “Just Say No”? – Ep. 149
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
Peter Schiff
4.6 • 5.9K Ratings
🗓️ 10 March 2016
⏱️ 37 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
* So far it's been a pretty light week but what little economic data that has been released is bad, and all of it evidences the recession that nobody wants to acknowledge
* Let's start with the Consumer Credit numbers that came out on Monday. Not only was the number extremely weak, but the revisions to the prior month were even weaker
* The initial report for the growth in consumer credit in December was $21.3 billion
* Now I don't think growth in consumer credit is good; I think it undermines long-term living standards
* The last thing you want to do is borrow money to consume, one of the points I really hammered home in my book, "How an Economy Grows and Why it Crashes"
* If you haven't bought that book, you should get a copy
* Be sure to pick the collector's edition because, in addition to being a really beautiful book, it has two entirely new chapters. If you already have the original one, buy the collector's edition and give the original away to a friend.
* Consumers should not borrow to consume. They should save to consume.
* Businesses should use our savings to invest in capital equipment to grow the economy
* When you consume savings, you undermine long-term economic growth and therefore future consumption is diminished
* The problem is we're living in a bubble, and in order to sustain this bubble economy, consumers have to keep spending
* In this economy, however in order to keep spending they have to keep borrowing because they're certainly not earning, and they don't have any savings
* This has to blow up eventually but right now, it's all about keeping the music going
* Consumer credit was revised down from the originally reported $21.3 billion to just $6.4 billion of growth
* They were looking for January to grow by $16.5 billion, and of course, this also includes student loans, as well as credit cards
* Instead, we got an increase of just $10.5 billion
* Consumer credit growth imploded in December and January
* If there's all this job creation why aren't these newly-employed people spending money?
* This shows you the jobs are going to people who already have part-time jobs, and need to supplement hours and wages
* Also, we got the Small Business Optimism Index, which last month was 93.9, and there was an expectation that it would increase to 94.2, that small businesses would be a little more optimistic, yet it dropped a full point to 92.9 - the lowest level in 2 years
* If that is the case, why are they hiring people?
* The type of hiring that is going on is hiring part time workers to replace full-time workers
* Which brings me to the data that came out today: Wholesale Trade
* Inventories were expected to drop, but they increased by .3%
* And the inventory for December was revised from -.1 to unchanged
* The reason inventories spiked is because sales collapsed
* The inventory to sales ratio just hit a new high, at 1.35
* This is a 7-year high. The last time the inventory to sales ratio was this high was in April of 2009. We were still knee-deep in the Great Recession
* If this recovery even exists, why isn't the merchandise being bought?
* At some point this year, the lone remaining bright spot in this horrible economic landscape - the number of jobs being created - will turn down
* We got more disappointing corporate earnings news this week
* The reason the stock market is moving slightly up is because of the sentiment that the Fed will not raise rates in the near future
* It's not just the stock market - Oil is above $38/barrel
* Also some of the industrial metals have had huge spikes
* And of course, the dollar is going down against other currencies
* The Australian dollar hit an 8- month high
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Well, so far it's been a pretty light week when it comes to economic data, but what little |
| 0:14.4 | economic data has been released has been bad and all of it evidences the recession that |
| 0:20.4 | nobody wants to acknowledge, least of all the Federal Reserve. |
| 0:24.1 | Let's start with the consumer credit numbers that came out on Monday and not only was this |
| 0:31.0 | number extremely weak, but the revisions to the prior month were even weaker. |
| 0:36.3 | So the initial report for the growth in consumer credit in December was 21.3 billion. |
| 0:44.6 | Now, of course, I don't think growing consumer credit is good. |
| 0:48.6 | I think consumer credit actually undermines long term living standards. |
| 0:53.5 | That's the last thing that you want to do is borrow money to consume. |
| 0:57.1 | And that's one of the points that I really hammered home in my book, How an Economy |
| 1:02.3 | Grows and Why It Crashes. |
| 1:03.9 | And if you haven't bought that book, you should get a copy. |
| 1:06.7 | By the way, I talked to somebody who came by my booth at the Money Show who loved that |
| 1:12.5 | book and I asked them, did you get the collectors edition? |
| 1:16.8 | And he said, no, I already had the book. |
| 1:18.6 | I didn't just feel like getting the one that had a different cover. |
| 1:22.3 | And I reminded them, there's two entirely additional chapters in the collectors edition. |
| 1:28.9 | So I didn't just give you a fancy cover and include a few pictures. |
| 1:33.5 | There's two really good chapters in there that weren't in the original. |
| 1:37.9 | So I definitely think that even if you have the original, you should get a copy of the |
| 1:42.3 | collectors edition. |
| 1:43.3 | And if you want, you can give the original to a friend and keep the collectors edition |
... |
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