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Capitalisn't

Why Capitalism Stopped Working In Japan, with Takeo Hoshi

Capitalisn't

University of Chicago Podcast Network

Stigler Center, Chicago Booth, Socialism, Antitrust, University Of Chicago Podcast Network, Growth, 087667, Policy, Monopoly, Professors, Distortion, Research, Competition, Capitalisnt, Inequality, Promarket, Politics, Policymaking, Special Interest, Economics, Efficiency, Regulations, Chicago, Business, Markets, University Of Chicago, Kate Waldock, Capitalism, Friction, Bethany Mclean, Government, Macroeconomics, News, Education, Waldock, Georgetown, Microeconomics, Luigi Zingales, Zingales, Finance, Ucpn

4.5 • 584 Ratings

🗓️ 2 October 2025

⏱️ 48 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The Japanese economy was once the envy of the world. By the 1980s, it looked set to surpass the United States in size. Real estate prices were high, the stock market was booming—the entire world was asking if Japan had found a superior model of economic growth and recovery after World War II, one grounded in industrial policy. However, the bubble burst in the early 1990s, and what followed was not a quick recession and rebound as we have often seen in the U.S., but decades of stagnation. Near-zero deflation became entrenched, and the banking system turned into a drug of cheap borrowing rather than an engine for recovery, with the Bank of Japan pioneering quantitative easing by pushing interest rates to zero long before the U.S. Federal Reserve considered such steps in the wake of the 2007 financial crisis. Japan has never since returned to sustainable growth, and this matters for the world at large. A significant creditor to other countries, shifts in Japan’s economic policy and fluctuations in its currency ripple across global interest rates, tightening or loosening financial conditions worldwide. Japan also remains a critical node in global supply chains (including for semiconductor chips and electronics), a major importer of energy, and not for nothing, its cultural exports continue to conquer the world. What lessons can Japan’s lost decades of economic stagnation and missed opportunities offer the U.S. and other developed economies? Bethany and Luigi are joined by Takeo Hoshi, professor of economics at the University of Tokyo and a leading expert on Japan's financial system and economic stagnation. Together, they discuss Japan’s idiosyncrasies—from demographic decline to economic policy mismanagement—and the interplay of global factors such as populism, nativism, and dissatisfaction with capitalism. If the U.S. is indeed on the cusp of its own economic bubble driven by oversized capital investments in artificial intelligence and technology rather than consumer spending and wage growth, does it have the institutions and flexibility to avoid Japan’s fate?

Transcript

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0:00.0

What failed was the idea that Japan has a special different capitalist system, which works better, but they didn't really have.

0:12.8

I'm Bethany McLean.

0:14.5

Did you ever have a moment of doubt about capitalism and whether greed's a good idea?

0:19.8

And I'm Luigi Zengalis.

0:21.1

We have socialism for the very rich, rugged individualism for the poor.

0:26.6

And this is Capital Isn't, a podcast about what is working in capitalism.

0:30.6

First of all, tell me, is there some society you know that doesn't run on greed?

0:35.1

And most importantly, what isn't?

0:37.1

We ought to do better by the people to get left behind.

0:40.0

I don't think we shouldn't kill the capital system in the process.

0:43.6

Today, I want to start with something you might not expect.

0:46.6

Have you heard about One Piece?

0:48.3

It's a Japanese comic, but it's not just a Japanese comic.

0:52.0

It's the world's best-selling manga with over a half a billion

0:55.0

copies sold, translated into dozens of language, spun into TV shows, films, video games,

1:00.4

and even a Netflix adaptation. It's a cultural juggernaut that has reached audiences across the globe.

1:06.5

And in a strange way, it offers a window into Japan's paradox. While the country's economy has stalled,

1:11.9

its culture was out there conquering the world. The question is whether Japan's fate is unique

1:16.7

or whether it's a map for others, including the United States today. Japan was once the envy of the

1:22.2

world. By the 1980s, it looked poised to surpass the United States. Real estate prices in Tokyo were so high

1:28.4

that people joked the land under the Imperial Palace was worth more than all of California.

1:33.5

Stock market valuation seemed unstoppable. The entire world was looking at Japan and asking,

...

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