Why Aren’t Investors More Worried?

Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.3 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 14 April 2026

⏱️ 20 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Goldman Sachs Research’s Dominic Wilson discusses the impact of the Iran conflict—including the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—on global markets. In discussion with Exchanges Host Allison Nathan, he explores the market reactions, risks, and the outlook for equities, rates, currencies, and portfolio positioning amid the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. This episode was recorded on April 13, 2026. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party. Copyright 2026. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Markets reacted very sharply to news of the Iran ceasefire agreement last week, only to be met with news to start this week of a U.S. blockade of the state of Hormuz, which is critical for global energy flows.
0:18.1	So how are markets navigating this uncertainty and what can investors expect
0:21.7	to head? I'm Alison Nathan and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges. My guest today is Dominic Wilson,
0:30.3	senior markets advisor in Goldman Sachs research. Dom, welcome back to exchanges. Thank you.
0:35.7	So, Dom, we have had nothing short of a roller coaster of developments and headlines related to the war in Iran.
0:44.3	And I have to say, the most recent ones in terms of this blockade I just mentioned are not very encouraging about seeing a quick resolution to this conflict.
0:53.8	But if you look at the markets and the S&P
0:55.5	500 in particular, it is pricing just below where we were before the conflict even began.
1:02.4	So let me just start by asking, does that surprise you at all? And is the market really
1:07.3	underestimating the downside risk here? So the two parts of those questions, I think, are different from each other.
1:13.8	So the first, is it a surprise?
1:15.8	What I would say is that the thing that we've been reminding ourselves is that as you move
1:19.9	through crises, as you move through these kinds of events, what you tend to see is the market
1:25.4	worry a lot.
1:26.6	And then the first stage of relief comes
1:29.3	mostly from removing the weight that people put on the very bad tails that are out there.
1:34.3	And so seeing a recovery period where there's a lot of things unresolved, I think that in itself is not unusual.
1:41.3	If you think of COVID, if you think of tariffs, the recovery
1:45.7	periods often came before a lot of the worst things on the ground had happened. And I do think
1:50.4	that is essentially what the market is doing, which is we can see that oil prices have stayed at
1:56.0	high levels. We can see the oil flows are not yet moving. But the market has made a judgment,
2:00.7	I think that when it looked at the distribution a few weeks ago, we can see the oil flows are not yet moving, but the market has made a judgment.
	...

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