meta_pixel
Tapesearch Logo
Log in
WSJ What’s News

Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

WSJ What’s News

The Wall Street Journal

Daily News, News

4.14.2K Ratings

🗓️ 4 May 2026

⏱️ 13 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

A.M. Edition for May 4. President Trump announces a new plan for opening the Strait of Hormuz - but traders seem unconvinced, sending oil prices higher. Plus, GameStop makes a massive play for e-commerce giant Ebay. And a Journal investigation reveals why most prediction market bets end in a loss. WSJ’s Neil Mehta details the winners and losers of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket - and why the odds are worse than a Vegas slot machine. Daniel Bach hosts. Sign up for the WSJ’s free What’s News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

How much of your workday is actually work, and how much is just hunting for information?

0:05.2

That's the problem Amazon Quick was built to solve. Quick is an intelligent workplace assistant

0:09.5

that connects all your systems, your documents, dashboards, Salesforce, Jira, Slack, email,

0:15.0

and gives you complete answers in seconds and turns them into action. Create a deck,

0:19.7

update a ticket, send a message, right there in

0:21.9

the conversation without switching tools. It's AI that actually works the way you do. Learn more at

0:27.5

aWS.com slash quick. President Trump announces a new plan for opening the straight of Hormuz, but traders seem unconvinced.

0:39.4

Plus, GameStop makes a massive play for e-commerce giant eBay, and the journal reveals why most

0:45.5

prediction market bets end in a loss.

0:48.6

Kalshian polymarket have pitched themselves as this everyman's platform, where anyone can

0:54.0

monetize their beliefs and win.

0:56.0

But what they don't mention is that you'll probably lose.

0:59.4

It's Monday, May 4th. I'm Daniel Bach for the Wall Street Journal, filling in for Luke Vargas.

1:04.0

And here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines, and business stories moving your world today.

1:19.1

President Trump has said the U.S. would begin guiding commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz today in an effort to unblock the waterway. But critics point to how

1:23.8

the plan doesn't involve naval escorts. Instead, Project Freedom allows for countries,

1:29.0

insurance companies, and shippers to coordinate in a bid to get traffic flowing through the

1:33.1

strait. For now, though, oil traders appear unconvinced it will resolve a supply crunch that has

1:38.5

sent prices soaring. Features tied to Brent crude rose above $109 a barrel this morning.

1:45.1

And those higher oil prices have led to a surge in fuel cost for airlines,

1:49.2

with the sector this weekend claiming its first victim of the war.

1:53.2

Spirit Airlines is shut down after bailout talks with the Trump administration failed.

...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from The Wall Street Journal, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of The Wall Street Journal and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.

Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.