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🗓️ 26 June 2025
⏱️ 19 minutes
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It’s bad news all round for Labour and the Tories. An MRP poll out today forecasts that if an election were held tomorrow, Labour would not only lose its majority, but fall behind Reform to become the second-largest party. The Conservatives would be reduced to a mere 46 seats, placing them fourth behind the Lib Dems.
But that’s just the beginning of their collective woes. On the Labour side – despite Keir Starmer’s charm offensive and ongoing talks with Labour MPs about potential changes to welfare policy – the number of rebels appears to be growing. The feeling increasingly is that someone might have to go, and calls for ‘regime change’ splash the Times. Is time up for Morgan McSweeney?
On the other side of the House, the Tories are in disarray, as Tim Shipman reports in The Spectator this week. In his scoop-filled piece, he writes: David Cameron thinks Robert Jenrick should be the next Tory leader, strategists fear the best they can hope for is to salvage 80 seats, and the blond bombshell Boris Johnson has a five-point plan for his return. Are the Tories toast?
James Heale speaks to Michael Gove and Tim Shipman.
Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Megan McElroy.
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0:38.7 | involves risk. Hello and welcome to Coffee House Shots. I'm James Heel and I'm joined |
0:47.1 | today by Michael Gove and Tim Shipman. Now this week, Tim, it's been a pretty bad week for both |
0:52.7 | the main parties. It's been a big MRP Times poll out the first since the election and it shows that reformer on course |
0:58.8 | to win 270 seats, Labour down to 178, the Tories down just 46. So, I mean, who's having a |
1:05.0 | worst week, Keir Stahmer or Kemi Badernock? Well, I think the simple answer to that question |
1:08.6 | is probably Keir Stalmer, he's the Prime Minister. He only 24 hours ago was talking about noises off in his own party over the welfare rebellion. Well, the noises are loud enough now that Downing Street was sticking out press releases at gone midnight, basically explaining that they're going to have to make some changes and back down a bit. |
1:29.2 | So in terms of the sort of raw politics of the week, I think Stama's having a worse one. |
1:34.2 | But as we've covered in the magazine and as this MRP poll shows, there are a heck of a lot of |
1:39.5 | medium-term jitters in the Conservative Party as well. And I think really the story of this poll |
1:44.1 | is that |
1:44.6 | Nigel Farage has got himself in a position where it's no longer a long shot that he's |
1:50.3 | prime minister and we're somewhere between a possibility and a probability. And that's bad news |
1:54.3 | for both main parties, both of whom have sort of immediate problems and the potential for them to |
1:59.6 | get worse in the months ahead. |
2:02.6 | Michael, do you agree with that analysis? |
2:08.1 | I do. So I think that what the poll confirms is that the Conservative Party is in deep difficulties, but it confirms that. So essentially over the last few months, it's been clear |
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