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Open to Debate

Who Is Winning the Iran War: Tehran or Trump?

Open to Debate

Open to Debate

Education, Society & Culture, News

4.62.2K Ratings

🗓️ 10 July 2026

⏱️ 52 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

After signing a Memorandum of Understanding in June, the U.S. and Iran entered a delicate peace. As negotiators worked toward a permanent deal, one question loomed: Who won the war in Iran — Tehran or Trump? Hours after we concluded a debate on that very question, strikes resumed. By morning, President Trump declared the truce over. Today, we bring you that debate, and the question of who holds the upper hand, and what has been gained and lost, is more pressing than ever.  Note: This debate was recorded on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, before the verbal dissolution of the Islamabad Memorandum and the resumption of military action in the Iran War.  Arguing "Tehran is Winning": Suzanne Maloney, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution  Arguing "Trump is Winning": Matthew Kroenig, Vice President for Geostrategy and Fellows and Senior Director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security  Emmy award-winning journalist John Donvan moderates  Join the conversation on Substack—share your perspective on this episode and subscribe to our weekly newsletter for curated insights from our debaters, moderators, and staff.  Follow us on YouTube, Instagram, LinkedIn, X, Facebook, and TikTok to stay connected with our mission and ongoing debates.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

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0:31.2

Hi everybody, John Donvan here. And a note before the debate you're about to listen to, it looks

0:36.1

at the status of the war in Iran.

0:37.8

Now, in the past few days, what had been a tenuous ceasefire now seems to be clearly non-functional, hostilities have resumed, although not to the level seen previously. I am mentioning this because a few days ago, on July 7th, when the ceasefire was still holding, we taped a debate on the question of who won the war. Though this is an ever-evolving situation, obviously, and perhaps

0:56.6

because it is, the argument holding, we taped a debate on the question of who won the war. Though this is an ever-evolving

0:55.2

situation, obviously, and perhaps because it is, the arguments made when we recorded still stand.

1:00.7

I just wanted you to have that perspective. You know, in writing about war, poets and historians

1:06.5

and the news media have tended to use a list of word pairings that get used over and over again,

1:12.0

such as overwhelming force, hasty retreat, ignominious defeat, decisive victory.

1:17.0

When the U.S. and Israel launched their attack on Iran in February, decisive victory is what was promised.

1:23.4

Now, months later, does the outcome, such as it stands, live up to that promise?

1:28.9

Well, the answer depends on part on how you define victory, and how you keep score and what remains

1:33.8

unresolved, and also whom you believe. All we know is that the Trump administration and the

1:39.5

clerics who rule Iran are both declaring themselves the victors. So which is it? That's what we're going to find out.

1:46.0

We are posing this question, who won the Iran war, Trump or Tehran? And we're bringing on two

1:51.7

subject matter experts. People have really thought about this and have strong opinions and who

1:55.4

will be taking opposing views as we see them argue it out. So let me introduce our debaters, arguing Tehran in answer to the

2:02.7

question, who won the Iran war? We have Suzanne Maloney, who is vice president and director

...

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