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Money For the Rest of Us

Which Inflation Protection Strategies Worked and Which Didn't?

Money For the Rest of Us

J. David Stein

Investing, Investing Podcast, Business, Economics, Economy

4.51.4K Ratings

🗓️ 19 April 2023

⏱️ 30 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

With a total U.S. inflation rate of 14% in the past two years, we review how various inflation hedges performed over the past twenty-four months.

Topics covered include:

  • What were investors' and the Federal Reserve's inflation expectations two years ago
  • What led to the big inflation increase
  • Why was the Federal Reserve forced to raise its policy rate by almost 5% in a year
  • How successful were inflation-index bonds, stocks, commodities, and real estate in beating inflation over the past two years
  • How did two active ETFs that set out to protect against inflation perform
  • What is the current outlook for inflation, and what should investors do


For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

CPI Inflation Calculator—U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Inflation Beneficiaries ETF—Horizon Kinetics

Quadratic Capital Management

Investments Mentioned

iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP)

Vanguard Short-term Inflation Protection Securities ETF (VTIP)

Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC)

Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT)

Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)

WisdomTree U.S. High Dividend Fund (DHS)

WisdomTree Global High Dividend Fund (DEW)

Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF (INFL)

Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH)

Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF (IVOL)

Related Episodes

336: Own What Is Real

342: Is Another Great Inflation Coming?

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Money for the Rest of Us.

0:02.6

This is a personal financial on money, how it works, how to invest it, and how to live

0:07.6

without worrying about it.

0:09.1

I'm your host, David Stein, today is episode 429.

0:12.5

It's titled, Which Inflation Hedges Worked and Which Didn't.

0:17.2

Two years ago in the spring of 2021, we released a number of episodes on the risk of higher

0:22.1

inflation and on investments that could help protect against inflation.

0:26.9

An investment protects against inflation if it generates a return greater than inflation.

0:32.4

In this episode, we want to review how those inflation hedging strategies actually worked.

0:37.0

Did they outperform the inflation rate, allowing investors to maintain the purchasing power

0:41.4

of their assets?

0:42.7

First, what has been the inflation rate?

0:45.6

I use the CPI inflation calculator provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

0:52.5

This based on the consumer price index for all urban consumers known as CPIU.

0:59.5

That reflects the average price in U.S. cities for hundreds of goods and services that

1:04.7

are purchased for consumption by households.

1:07.2

That inflation calculator, $100 in March 2021, has the same buying power as $113.95 in

1:16.8

March 2023.

1:18.6

That means inflation has increased just about 14% on a total or cumulative basis.

1:26.7

For an investment to have outpaced inflation over the past two years, it needs to have

1:32.6

a cumulative return, a total return of over 14%.

1:38.4

Tears ago, the financial markets, they weren't pricing in high inflation.

...

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