Where Things Stand Now With Inflation and the Fed

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

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4.4 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 19 December 2022

⏱️ 50 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Last week was a big one. On Tuesday, we got a CPI report that came in substantially cooler than expected. Then on Wednesday, the Fed hiked 50 basis points, which was a step down from the series of 75 basis point hikes that we had been getting at recent meetings. So where do things stand now? When will we get a proper pivot? When will the Fed feel confident that inflation has been defeated. We spoke with two macro guests: Jon Turek, founder of JST Advisors and author of the Cheap Convexity Blog, as well as Tim Duy, Chief US Economist at SGH Macro as well as a Professor of Practice in economics at the University or Oregon. They gave as their readings on inflation, the Fed, and what to watch at the start of 2023.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	Hello, and welcome to another episode of the AdLots podcast.
0:14.3	I'm Joe Weisenthal.
0:15.8	And I'm Tracy Allowe.
0:16.8	Tracy, it's been a while since we've just sort of had a macro state of the economy episode,
0:23.0	but I think now is a very good time for it.
0:24.7	Yeah, absolutely.
0:25.9	So we are recording this on December 14th, literally two hours after the Fed's latest
0:32.7	decision in which they hiked by 50 basis points.
0:35.8	That was widely expected.
0:37.5	But what wasn't as expected was the CPI number that we got just yesterday, which came
0:41.8	in.
0:42.8	I think the headline figure was 7.1%, which was lower than expected.
0:46.7	Right.
0:47.7	So a pretty big week.
0:49.1	I mean, the story, the big macro story is everyone's waiting for some clear sign of
0:54.1	inflation deceleration.
0:56.2	Everybody is trying to figure out, you know, it's the Fed going to pivot and what pivot
1:00.0	even means, which I think is a contested word.
1:03.7	And so I would say a pretty big week, because as you say, we got an inflation report, a
1:08.0	Fed announcement, press conference, all of that.
1:11.2	And so I think a good moment to take stock of where we are in these stories.
1:16.0	Right.
	...

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