Where is ETH in the cycle? | Michael Nadeau

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Tech News, Technology, News

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🗓️ 11 March 2026

⏱️ 57 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Ethereum underperformed this cycle, and investors are asking the big question: did ETH just skip a cycle, or is something deeper going on? Michael Nadeau joins Ryan to break down where Ethereum sits in the market cycle today, why several of his key indicators suggest ETH is entering a fair value zone, and whether the true macro bottom could still lie ahead. They also unpack why ETH struggled despite improving fundamentals. Mike explains how Ethereum’s L2 roadmap may have improved the network while weakening short-term value capture for the asset itself, and what signals he’s watching (MVRV, supply in profit, the 200-week moving average) as he looks for the next expansion phase. Michael Nadeau & The DeFi Report: https://x.com/JustDeauIt https://thedefireport.io/ --- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy --- BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🔮POLYMARKET | #1 PREDICTION MARKET https://bankless.cc/polymarket-podcast 🪐GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/galaxy-podcast 🏅BITGET TRADFI | TRADE GOLD WITH USDT https://bankless.cc/bitget 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | ONCHAIN INSIGHTS https://thedefireport.io/bankless 🌍 WORLD | FULLY ONCHAIN EXCHANGE https://bankless.cc/world --- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 3:50 The History of ETH Cycles 5:41 Analyzing Performance Trends 8:32 The Impact of L2 Roadmap 10:24 Roadmap Decisions & Market Perception 15:50 Valuation Metrics Explained 20:08 Disparities in Valuation Methods 23:22 Navigating Market Conditions 26:14 Nation-State Metaphor & Valuation 27:45 Revenue and Economic Impact 33:42 DEX Volumes & Their Implications 37:25 Stablecoin Supply on Ethereum 38:09 Cycle Metrics & Analysis 44:22 Fair Market Value Insights 50:40 Evaluating ETH for the Portfolio --- Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

Transcript

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0:00.0	Bankless Nation, today we're going to check in on ether, the asset. Where is ETH in the cycle?
0:09.5	My favorite cycle investor, Michael Nato from the Defy Report is on the podcast today. We do these
0:15.1	episodes on the bankless feed every month. And this one, I asked Mike to prepare little information for the ETH holders
0:22.9	among us. Mike and I have talked a lot about fair market value metrics for Bitcoin, the weekly
0:28.6	moving averages, MVR, V all of the metrics. We've looked at many charts about Bitcoin.
0:34.3	But ETH has its own cycle that is related to the broader crypto cycle, yet also
0:40.9	independent of Bitcoin.
0:43.0	So, what do Mike's numbers say about ETH price in the months to come?
0:47.7	I want to know if he thinks it's bottomed.
0:49.9	If not, when is it going to bottom?
0:53.1	Heath is one of three assets that Mike has held from the last cycle.
0:56.6	So I know he owns some.
0:58.2	Is he planning to buy more?
1:00.2	If so, when?
1:02.0	Now, I should qualify, unlike many guests on bankless,
1:05.5	Mike is not an ETH permable.
1:07.5	He is bullish Eth, has been bullish Eth various times.
1:10.7	But he's looking at this from a fairly
1:12.8	neutral perspective.
1:14.0	That is, what do the on-chain fundamentals actually say for this asset?
1:19.5	Mike, it's great to have you.
1:21.2	I know Bitcoin is your favorite asset.
	...

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