Michael Kramer. You write a lot of free stuff on Seeking Alpha under Mot Capital Management. You also have an investing group called Reading the Markets.

How are you sharing for investors? How are you articulating for investors how you're looking at the market and how we should be thinking about things coming down the pike these days?

So obviously I've been following inflation very closely and the

importance of it. I haven't been in agreement with consensus for a very long time on this topic, which has been sort of the

depending on how you're, you know, investing has either been, you know, great for you or not so great for you

because while the views I've had on

inflation being sticky and being more persistent and more problematic have

certainly been correct and while my views on fewer Fed rate cuts have been correct and

bond yields in the dollar have been correct. Equity markets really haven't been correct, right? Equity markets have rallied despite inflation being sticky in spite of interest rates moving higher, the dollar moving strengthening and things of that nature.

So it's been sort of like an up and down roller coaster ride, but the things that I'm noticing when I look at the just divergences between the things I've been looking for and predicting and the

equity market, the things that I notice is generally that the bond market has a view that the Fed may only cut rates one time this year, possibly two, while generally speaking when you sort of go through cell side analyst notes and economic data providers,

you're seeing that there are still expectations for rate cuts in July,

or that you're going to get more than two rate cuts this year.

And I think that's generally helped to keep the equity markets sort of elevated

and not really pull back.

And so what I'm starting to notice more and more

is these divergences between the amount of risk investors

are willing to take versus what the bond market and the

dollar seem to be telling us about the future of interest rates and where they're

going and inflation. And so I've been trying very hard these days to really focus a lot on inflation

being number one what that means for where the Fed is likely to go, and then trying to set expectations

around what that means for equities, but doing it in a way that also, of gives people the sense that the market may not, the equity

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