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Where Do We Go From Here? | Michael Nadeau

Bankless

Bankless

Tech News, Technology, News

4.71.2K Ratings

🗓️ 3 February 2026

⏱️ 60 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Michael Nadeau went risk-off in October and has been targeting Bitcoin's fair value near $65K. In this episode, he joins Ryan to unpack what changed after BTC broke below $80K, why he does not think this is the macro low yet, and what a real bottom typically looks like (capitulation, then apathy). They also dig into the new wild card: incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh, and why “rates down” could still mean tighter liquidity if the balance sheet shrinks. Mike walks through the key cycle signals he is watching (MVRV/realized price, 200-week moving average, long-term holder behavior, miners), how Bitcoin tends to lead the Nasdaq Composite, and the price zones on his watch list for ETH and SOL as he prepares to scale back into risk. Michael Nadeau & The DeFi Report: https://x.com/JustDeauIt https://thedefireport.io/ --- 📣KRAKEN | DEFI EARN https://bankless.cc/Kraken --- BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🔮POLYMARKET | #1 PREDICTION MARKET https://bankless.cc/polymarket-podcast ⚡EUPHORIA | REAL-TIME ONE-TAP TRADING https://bankless.cc/euphoria 🏅BITGET TRADFI | TRADE GOLD WITH USDT https://bankless.cc/bitget 👑BANKLESS PREMIUM | AD-FREE & BONUS EPISODES https://bankless.cc/spotify-premium 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | ONCHAIN INSIGHTS https://bankless.cc/TDR-pro 💰ICO WATCH | UPCOMING PUBLIC TOKEN SALES https://bankless.cc/ico-watch --- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 3:03 New Fed Chair Announcement 8:54 Macro Analysis of Kevin Warsh 14:56 Labor Market Concerns 23:09 Wealth Destruction Phase 26:31 Long-Term Market Projections 31:21 Bitcoin vs. Stocks 39:51 Market Sentiment & Cycles 42:10 Tactical Investment Strategies 55:29 Long-Term Optimism for Crypto 58:06 Closing & Disclaimers --- Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

Transcript

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0:00.0

Bankless Nation, the big question everyone is asking is where in the heck do we go from here?

0:08.3

It's not looking great out there.

0:09.9

Crypto is down.

0:11.0

Everything else is up.

0:12.6

What is happening in this cycle?

0:14.3

How long will the pain last?

0:16.4

We've got Michael Nato on the episode.

0:18.6

You guys know we've been doing these episodes on a monthly basis or so trying to dig into the cycle fundamentals. I want to find out what Mike's forecast for the rest of the year is. Also, there is a new Fed share. His name is Kevin Warsh. How does this change things? And stay tuned till the end where, Mike, I'm going to ask you for your entry price

0:38.2

predictions. I know you're not a buyer yet, but you're going to be for Bitcoin, Eith, and Solana.

0:44.7

Michael Nato, is this it? Is this the blood in the streets we've been waiting for?

0:49.8

That's the big question, I think, out there right now. We recorded an episode last week and I said

0:56.6

that we were sort of in in no man's land, right? Trading below support around 93K or so above like

1:03.8

critical support at that 80K line. And last Friday we ended up breaking down from 80 and And we've dropped about, you know, 15% or so from

1:14.2

90K last week. And I think that's the big question. There is some blood in the streets where,

1:21.4

where my head is at in terms of like where we are in the cycle, where the markets are at, is that up until last week, I think if

1:30.9

you had a bull thesis, you could still sort of hold on to that. And I think the bulls still

1:36.8

were willing to say that the market could reverse and the momentum could reverse. I think now going into this week,

1:45.5

there's probably less bulls out there and there's probably more acceptance in the market that

1:51.7

this is playing out how crypto bear markets typically do play out. And so I think that's where we're at.

1:58.3

So I'm not ready to say we're hitting a macro low for the cycle just yet.

2:04.0

When we do go there, you know, I expect that it will take some time, right?

2:10.0

I don't think once you go to a macro low, it's not like there's all these buyers that are just ready.

...

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