NPR.

This is the indicator from Planet Money.

I'm Adrienne Ma.

And I'm Darym Woods.

Gasoline and groceries.

All the things Americans spend money on, gas and groceries are among the most

volatile price-wise. Yeah, more so than other goods, the price of gas and groceries tends to

fluctuate a lot. We all know by now that gas prices have soared in the past couple of months.

But here's something interesting. In that same period, the price of groceries has been relatively flat.

And in fact, according to the latest consumer price index report, the cost of groceries actually went down a little in March.

Good news, I suppose.

Or what passes for good news these days?

Yeah, uh-uh, though there's some bad news on the horizon, and that is it may just be a matter

of time before the worst effect on gas prices also hits the grocery store.

And the question is, will that effect be a big one or a little one?

Today on the show, a food economist takes a crack at forecasting just how much our grocery bills could increase in the coming months.

And which items in our carts will take the biggest hit.

To help us understand how the Iran War could translate into higher grocery prices, we called

up David Ortega. He's a food economist at Michigan State University.

Where I studied the food system, how food goes all the way from farm to our table,

and all the factors that can impact that journey along the way.

It must be impossible for you to walk through a grocery store like a normal person.

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