The Fed's job was complicated enough before the war from American public media.

This is Marketplace.

In Denver, I'm Amy Scott in for Kai Risdahl. It's Monday, March 16th. Good to have you with us.

It is Fed Week, meaning the committee that guides short-term interest rates in this economy,

will meet starting tomorrow to discuss the state of that economy. We'll get its decision on the federal funds rate

on Wednesday. The last time the Fed changed that rate with a quarter point cut was December.

Then we got a pause in January, and most analysts expect the Fed to hold rates steady this time, too.

Marketplaces Kristen Schwab looks at why and what officials will be

watching for in the months ahead. Between elevated inflation and a shaky job market, the Federal Reserve

had already been setting the stage for an interest rate hold. Former Fed Governor Randy Krosner

says now with the war, the hold is basically cemented here and around the world.

Almost every major central bank is having a meeting this week, and I think almost all of them are going to stay on hold.

Uncertainty forces economies to stop, observe, and recalibrate, says former Fed advisor Ellen Mead.

If an oil shock or something very similar to it is

short-lived, probably the best thing a central bank can do is just wait. Wait to see how long the war lasts,

and wait to see how deeply oil prices affect other prices, because expensive oil.

It's a stagflationary shock.

Pricy gas could make consumers pull back on other spending, which would slow down the economy.

Pricy gas could also make goods more expensive and push inflation up.

Now, usually central bankers write this kind of shock off as a one-time thing, as transitory.

You know, that language has sort of been tard and feathered, I think, by the experience during the

pandemic. Back then, the Fed insisted inflation was transitory, but it ended up peaking above 9%, and still hasn't come all the

...