“When” is a Dangerous Word
Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing
The Motley Fool
4.3 • 3.1K Ratings
🗓️ 15 December 2020
⏱️ 2 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | With the Motley Full Money Extra, I'm Chris Hill. |
| 0:09.6 | With just a couple weeks left in 2020, it's fair to say this has been an unusual year for |
| 0:15.0 | investors. |
| 0:16.0 | When you think back to how much stocks fell in March and April, it's almost hard to believe |
| 0:20.7 | that the S&P 500 is on track to finish the year up around 10%. |
| 0:26.6 | Of course, now the question a lot of people are asking is when's the next downturn? |
| 0:31.6 | And that is a question Howard Marx does not want to hear. |
| 0:35.6 | Marx is the co-founder of Oak Tree Capital, one of the biggest money management firms in |
| 0:39.6 | the world. |
| 0:40.9 | In the fall of 2018, he spent a little time talking with my colleague Bill Mann and |
| 0:45.6 | shared why the word when can be a dangerous one for investors. |
| 0:50.9 | It should be clear by now to everyone that the swings in popularity are unpredictable. |
| 1:00.3 | And if they are, then most forecasts are not going to work. |
| 1:05.9 | So the next concept is that people say to me, okay, when will the market turn down? |
| 1:14.8 | And I never answer a question that starts with the word when. |
| 1:19.1 | In investment business, sometimes we know what's going to happen. |
| 1:25.9 | We never know when. |
| 1:27.7 | And so I would dispense with that immediately. |
| 1:30.8 | You must accept the ambiguity in the situation and accept the need to live with uncertainty. |
| 1:42.5 | And that's why in the book, I say there are certain words that every good investor should |
| 1:47.2 | drive out of his vocabulary. |
| 1:49.4 | Things like never, always, must, can't, has to. |
... |
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