When Bitcoin’s Bear Market Might End
The Breakdown
Blockworks
4.8 • 806 Ratings
🗓️ 29 May 2026
⏱️ 13 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome back to The Breakdown, everybody. I'm your host David Canellis. Today, it's going to be a quick one. |
| 0:05.0 | We're just looking at something specifically about Bitcoin because I've had some request to just |
| 0:08.4 | focus on the big orange coin. And I mean, if the four-year cycle is still intact and Bitcoin is cyclical, |
| 0:16.2 | then we must be able to look at the bull and bear cycles to see some information about where |
| 0:20.6 | we might be headed in the next six months to a year. So we're going to look at the bull and bear cycles to see, to see some information about where we might |
| 0:20.9 | be headed in the next six months to a year. So we're going to look at where we are on the |
| 0:24.9 | bear market chart. So without further ado, let's get to it. Nothing said on the breakdown |
| 0:35.5 | is a recommendation to buy itself self-securities or tokens. |
| 0:42.1 | This podcast is for informational purposes only and interviews expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. |
| 0:44.8 | Host and guests may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed. |
| 0:50.3 | Okay, so what I've done here is I have pooled price data for Bitcoin. |
| 0:55.7 | Really since the beginning, and I'm going to remove some of these lines as we go further. |
| 0:59.2 | And if you're just listening to the audio-only version, again, I apologize. |
| 1:03.8 | I'm going to do my best to convey what I'm seeing on my screen as efficiently as possible. |
| 1:14.1 | But what we have here is every Bitcoin bear market since 2013, which is basically what you would say probably would be the first legitimate bear market. And they're all plotted on the screen as if they had all |
| 1:19.8 | started on the same day. And the idea is to compare bear market trajectories and lengths across |
| 1:25.9 | basically Bitcoin's whole history. |
| 1:28.5 | And the current bear market, which you would say, and I mean, it really depends on how |
| 1:33.8 | you define bull and bear markets, this analysis is quite simplistic. |
| 1:37.1 | It builds on some analysis from iOSG ventures that had teased out the lengths of Bitcoin bull and bear cycles. And if you do |
| 1:48.6 | all that, you can pull up the exact thing. I think there's a piece in the defiance that |
| 1:52.9 | the details their analysis. And I've sort of built on that and adapted that for to, to analyze |
... |
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