This is a

a exchange as a Goldman Sachs where we discuss development shaping industries

markets and the global economy.

I'm Allison Nathan a senior strategist in Goldman Sachs research.

We're on the cusp of one of the largest monetary tightening cycles in recent memory,

the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of

England are all looking to accelerate the pace of policy normalization.

To help us make sense of the Central Bank activity and the implications for markets and investors, I'm delighted to be

joined by my colleague in Goldman Sachs research David Miracle, our chief US

economist as well as Brian Friedman global head of market strats and our

global markets division. David Brian welcome as Brian Friedman, Global Head of Market Strats, and our Global Markets Division.

David, Brian, welcome to the program.

Thank you.

David, let's start with you.

Your team recently raised its estimate for the number of expected Federal Reserve interest rate hikes to a whopping

seven hikes from expectations of just three hikes heading into the year.

What's changed that's led you to make these shifts?

I'd say a couple of things have changed.

First, our assessment of wage growth dynamics

look a lot more worrisome than we had previously thought.

Late last fall, it seemed that in the aftermath of enhanced unemployment benefits going away

wage growth was calming down to a rate that was compatible with the Fed's 2% inflation

...