Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

What's going on, guys? It is Tuesday, September 3rd, first breakdown of the fall, and I am excited to dig in.

Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it,

give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation,

come join us on the breakers discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.L.ly slash breakdown pod. Hello friends. It is officially post-Labor Day weekend here in the U.S.

The summer holidays have finally wound down. School is back in session. And for us in the crypto world,

market participants are heading back to their desks. And so, of course, we have to start with a little

discussion of seasonality. While the calendar effect might be a little questionable for stocks,

most crypto traders believe that Bitcoin shows clear seasonal trends. August and September are

generally considered the weakest months for Bitcoin. Over the past six years, August has seen a

3.6% drawdown on average, while September has seen prices drop by 5.4%. This year is no exception,

with Bitcoin closing down 8.6% in August. Last month was the worst for Bitcoin since April

and the third weakest monthly performance over the past 18 months.

Interestingly, last September was uncharacteristically positive, showing a mild 3.9% gain.

That could simply be an outlier, with the prior six years each featuring a red September.

There is at this stage no example of a wildly positive September yet.

Only one-third of Septembers have been green, and they were all extremely marginal. The best performance on record came in 2016, with a fairly modest 6% gain. One of the

concerning points is that Bitcoin is entering September already at range lows. Bitcoin spent

most of Saturday hovering around 59,000, but dove towards 57,000 across Sunday. If September proves to be a negative month, there's not a

whole lot of support below these price levels. The hope then would be that September is no longer

a deeply red month, but rather a relatively flat period. Since 2020, September has been one of the

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