Matthew Eglaceus, host of the Weeds podcast here at Vox, The Stock Markets, being uncooperative.

Elizabeth Warren says the economic downturn is around the corner.

Bank of America says the chance of a recession in the next year is one in three.

What do you say, Matthew? Is the recession coming?

I love one in three is a great coward's call. You can claim you're right either way.

No, I mean, unfortunately, there's no really foolproof way to predict recessions, but

there's an elevated concern today because there is something that has tended to happen

historically before a recession, and it's kind of happening now.

You're talking about maybe a clue, a clue of some kind.

A clue of warning is what we often call it, and it's called the yield curve.

Uh oh, yeah.

It's a yield curve.

The yield curve?

It's pretty sweet.

I see you tweeting about the yield curve.

People love the yield curve.

It's your jam.

Yes.

So nobody likes to talk about charts, but is that what we're about to do?

I'm going to try to actually leave it out.

Here's the way it works, right?

So the government sells lots of different bonds.

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