What's the negative catalyst? (EP.291)

Animal Spirits Podcast

The Compound

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.7 • 2.1K Ratings

🗓️ 11 January 2023

⏱️ 54 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

On today’s show we discuss Michael becoming famous for a Bezos prediction, the case for no recession in 2023, the bullish case for stocks, the bearish case for stocks, false signals from an inverted yield curve, why this is not 1970s-like inflation, 2023 movies and much more. Find complete shownotes on our blogs... Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor Like us on Facebook And feel free to shoot us an email at animalspiritspod@gmail.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation. (Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, received compensation from the sponsor of this advertisement. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information.) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Today's animal spirits is brought to you by our friends at Y-charts.
0:04.0	Michael, another chart that I've been looking at a lot over the last 18 to 24 months.
0:09.1	US unemployment rate. One of my favorite things about Y-charts is
0:13.0	back in the day, we had to figure out how to add the little gray lines
0:15.8	with recessions on every minute chart.
0:17.2	Oh, that's right. I forgot about that.
0:18.2	It's hard.
0:18.9	The first of my did that, I felt like a wizard.
0:21.1	It's really hard to do it. I have to Google it every time.
0:24.0	So Y-charts just does it for you. You can add in the recession charts.
0:27.7	This is the US unemployment rate going back to the late 1940s.
0:30.9	And we're going to talk a lot about the labor market on today's show.
0:34.4	I still contend that spike and then fall back to earth.
0:38.9	Basically, another round trip in the unemployment rate.
0:41.8	It still defies logic looking at it.
0:44.8	Now, I posted this on Twitter last week and said as much after we had
0:48.3	its strong jobs at Port last week.
0:50.2	And the funny thing is that you always get a lot of responses from people saying,
0:53.2	well, it's obvious why it happened now.
0:55.4	But that hindsight is so easy that no one ever could have predicted
0:58.1	that you would have seen something like this in the moment.
1:00.5	Regardless of how much money the government was going to spend.
	...

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