What's next for the job market in 2026
Marketplace
American Public Media
4.6 • 8K Ratings
🗓️ 31 December 2025
⏱️ 28 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Total jobless claims fell last week, which is the second-lowest reading in the last two years. Experts, though, say it’s likely a seasonal blip — especially since the labor market has been slowing all year. In this episode, what might be ahead in 2026. Plus: Los Angeles expands rent control, influencers change the consumer economy with “shopaganda,” and tribute bands get a moment in the spotlight.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Here's the thing about out with the old, in with the new. |
| 0:05.4 | The biggest economic stories of 2025 don't end today. |
| 0:10.6 | They help inform the biggest economic stories of 2026. |
| 0:15.2 | From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. In New York, I'm Kristen Schwab in for Kyrisdal. It's Wednesday, |
| 0:31.6 | December 31st, the last day of the year. Good to be here with you. We're starting today with jobs, because honestly, |
| 0:40.1 | the job market is likely to continue to be one of the key metrics we watch in 2026. We got the |
| 0:47.2 | latest round of initial claims for unemployment benefits a day early because of tomorrow's holiday. |
| 0:52.9 | It showed that claims fell last week by 16,000, which means in total there were just under 200,000 |
| 0:59.3 | claims. |
| 1:00.4 | That's below what economists were expecting, and it's the second lowest reading in the last two |
| 1:05.9 | years. |
| 1:07.2 | So should this data send us into the new year hopeful that the job market is stabilizing and heading for a rebound? |
| 1:14.3 | Marketplaces Mitchell Hartman reports. |
| 1:16.8 | December can be kind of messy when it comes to unemployment data, says Andrew Statener at the Century Foundation. |
| 1:23.5 | It is always a tricky month to look at the week-to-week claims. |
| 1:27.7 | And this year, that could be especially true. |
| 1:30.5 | Businesses may have shifted layoffs to earlier in the year to deal with tariffs. |
| 1:35.4 | Seasonal trends could be skewing the numbers. |
| 1:38.1 | Stettner says over 2025 as a whole, unemployment claims have risen about 5%. |
| 1:43.9 | Frank Fiorelli analyzes employment data at |
| 1:47.0 | paychecks, a small business payroll processor. He calls the current job market a low fire, low hire |
| 1:54.4 | environment. Small employers are now raising pay at well under 3% a year, and workers are staying put rather than switching |
... |
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