4.4 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 21 July 2023
⏱️ 23 minutes
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0:00.0 | Hopes that China's reopening would power the global economy have been quickly dashed. |
0:04.6 | But is that disappointment warranted? |
0:06.9 | This is not something we have seen in previous cycles that this entrench and pervasive lack of confidence playing out in the Chinese |
0:15.4 | economy. |
0:16.4 | So this is a very difficult environment. |
0:18.7 | Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to be an easy fix here. |
0:22.1 | I'm Allison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs exchanges. China's emergence from COVID lockdowns was expected to boost the global economy, |
0:38.3 | but a string of disappointing data is giving investors, policymakers, and market watchers a new reason to worry. |
0:45.0 | To explain the drivers and the outlook for the world's second largest economy, |
0:49.0 | I'm speaking with my colleague in Goldman Sachs research, Wei Shan, our chief China economist. |
0:53.9 | Wei, welcome back to the program. |
0:55.3 | Thanks, nice to be on. |
0:56.7 | Wei, a lot's happened. |
0:58.2 | Let's just start with some context. |
1:00.4 | How did we get here? |
1:01.8 | So we know that all countries went through COVID and after reopening most economies will show a strong and sustained recovery. In the case of China, it's a bit disappointing that the scenes that the recovery and reopening impulse only lasted for one quarter. |
1:19.0 | The first quarter was good, but in the second quarter, the recovery seemed to have fizzled out and also what surprising was the sort of |
1:27.0 | spillover effect that also didn't play out as investors were hoping for whether it's the |
1:32.3 | stronger oil demand translating into higher commodity |
1:35.5 | prices or outbound travel being very strong. We saw some of it, but not to the extent the market's |
1:42.4 | expecting. |
1:43.4 | In retrospect, what was the key drivers of China's |
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