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Hello and welcome to Coffee House Shots.

I'm James Heel and I'm joined today by Fraser Nelson and Rob Covey with the Centre for Policy Studies.

Now, the figures are out today and they show that the migration, net migration,

was just over 600,000 or so.

This is less than expected.

Tell us why this is the case.

Well, it's partly because the Office for National Statistics has decided very

helpful for people like me to completely change the basis on which it, not completely,

but to substantially change the basis on which it carries out its migration forecast.

So it's not only adjusted the basis for this year, it's gone back over the last five years.

So, I mean, I can go into lots of boring technical detail,

but essentially what it's saying is that net migration was larger earlier than we thought.

So June 21 to 22 has now been upgraded from 500,000 to 600,000.

But then the sort of, so there's been a longer, a longer flatter peak, as it were.

But the message basically boils, yeah, this is still a very, very high level by any historic

standards, even if you strip out, you create, even if you strip out of Afghanistan, Hong Kong.

You know, there were, and it's been driven primarily by a very large rise

...