This is exchanges at Goldman Sachs and I'm Allison Nathan a senior strategist in Goldman Sachs research.

In this episode we're going to examine what's in store for global economies and markets in

2022. To do that I'm delighted to be joined by Jan Hatzius,

Goldman Sachs's head of global

investment research and chief economist and Dominic Wilson senior advisor in the

Global Markets Research Group. Jan, Dominic, welcome to the program.

Great to be on. Thank you.

Yon, you and your team recently published

your annual outlook for 2022, always a big event.

Your report was called The Long Road to Higher Rates,

and you make the case for a gradual move to higher rates and a

continuation of strong global growth. Just for some context, you had an above consensus

growth view for this year and that's largely played out.

What gives you confidence that global economies can continue to grow strongly next year?

Yeah, let me just set the stage a little. We came into 2021 expecting about 6% growth and that's roughly where we're likely to be.

Now, unlike a year ago, we're no longer above consensus in terms of our

forecast and we're pretty clearly past the strongest pace of growth for the

cycle which probably was sometime around Q2, but we still do

expect quite a strong economy with 4.5% growth in the global economy and most economies expanding well above their longer term trend.

And why do we have slower growth? Very simply,, the biggest boost from reopening the economy post-Covid is behind us.

Even if the latest outbreaks have relatively minor effects on growth,

we're no longer going to get the sort of boots

...