What Polls Get Wrong

Talking Feds

Harry Litman

News, Politics, Government

4.8 • 4.5K Ratings

🗓️ 3 October 2024

⏱️ 42 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Harry talks with Michael Podhorzer, founder of the Analyst Institute and perhaps the foremost student in the country of the true utility and disutility of political polls. Podhorzer explains the critical difference between two types of “undecided” voters the polls lump together – those (very very rare) votes still uncertain whom to vote for and those (much more common) voters who may or may not vote but know whom they would vote for. The difference has key implications for the state of the race, the best strategies for the campaign, and the right and wrong ways to interpret polls. The distinction also helps explain Trump’s steadfast refusal to expand or soften his autocratic extreme MAGA message. Podhorzer also explains the modeling he has done of the 2024 electorate based on vote history and behavior. A rich discussion and an effective antidote to the “Mad Poll Disease” that so many of us have as the election approaches. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	The Supreme Court term has officially ended and after some truly terrifying decisions
0:05.8	it can be hard to know what it all means and what is next. That's where strict scrutiny comes in.
0:10.4	Join us, hosts and constitutional law professors. Each week as we break down the latest headline in a laugh or two. Strict scrutiny is your guide to the Supreme Court. New
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0:27.1	get your podcast and on YouTube. Hello everyone. Before we dive into today's episode, I have some exciting news about our next event
0:36.4	in the Talking San Diego series of live conversations and you won't want to miss this one.
0:43.0	On Tuesday, October 15th, we'll be welcoming Nancy Pelosi, the first woman to serve as
0:49.0	Speaker of the House and I think clearly the most powerful woman in American political history for a
0:56.2	conversation anchored in her new book The Art of Power.
1:00.4	Pelosi, the recent recipient of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, has served for 37
1:07.1	eventful years in Congress.
1:09.5	She will take us behind the scenes of American politics, reflecting on her vital role in shaping
1:15.3	landmark legislation and navigating the complexities of power during her tenure in the
1:22.1	House, including her leadership during the
1:25.3	resistance to Donald Trump. For tickets and more information about this and
1:30.3	all talking San Diego events, visit Talking San Diego events,
1:33.0	visit Talking San Diego.net.
1:37.0	Welcome to Talking Feds One on One, Deep Dive Discussions with National Figures about the most fascinating and
1:55.0	shaping our culture,
1:56.0	I'm your host Harry Littman.
1:59.0	As we click off each day toward the election now only five weeks away it seems a fact of
2:06.6	human nature that we seize on any scrap of information that seems perhaps to predict what's happening in the country and which
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