What Next | Why The Shelves Aren't Empty (Yet)

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4 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 28 July 2025

⏱️ 32 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In May, after Trump announced a thorough regime of tariffs, supply chain experts warned that Americans would be looking at empty shelves by the end of June. But here we are in late July and the stores still seem fully stocked. So what happened? Guest: Justin Wolfers, professor of economics at the University of Michigan Want more What Next? Subscribe to Slate Plus to access ad-free listening to the whole What Next family and across all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page. Sign up now at slate.com/whatnextplus to get access wherever you listen. Podcast production by Ethan Oberman, Elena Schwartz, Paige Osburn, Anna Phillips, Madeline Ducharme, and Rob Gunther. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	This show is going to be a little bit of a Mia Culpa.
0:11.0	But first, I'm going to rewind the clock.
0:14.1	In terms of flashing red indicators, nothing beats what is happening at America's largest port right now.
0:21.6	This tape is from back in May.
0:23.6	At the time, the head of the Los Angeles port had started making the rounds on cable news.
0:29.6	This is MSNBC.
0:31.6	Just give me a snapshot in time, a today story of what is happening at the port of L.A.
0:38.3	Fewer vessels coming across the Pacific with less cargo.
0:42.3	It was pretty quiet out there when I started about 6 o'clock this morning.
0:47.3	The story this guy was telling was simple.
0:50.3	Because of the president's tariffs, trade with China was coming to a screeching halt.
0:57.3	And the rest of us, he implied, should be bracing for impact. Do you remember this moment?
1:04.2	Yeah.
1:06.6	You're like, uh, do I have to remember this moment?
1:15.4	No, I'm just like, if you want to talk about economics, call an economist, not a guy who runs a port.
1:26.9	Justin Wolfers is an economist, which is why I called him.
1:32.5	Because we actually ran a show about this whole port brouhaha while it was going on.
1:37.0	We titled it, yes, the shelves will be empty.
1:42.1	And if you've been into a target recently, you know how that prediction played out.
1:43.5	Sorry about that.
1:47.6	Anyway, I wanted Justin to explain what we'd missed.
1:58.4	He told me the first problem with our analysis was a misunderstanding of just how dire things would have to get for basic goods to essentially vaporize.
	...

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