So this is not, I mean, we've lazily called it a Nikki Haley voter. It's not a Nikki Haley voter.

It's an anti-Trump voter. And that's very important. That distinction is really, really important

because we're trying to gauge the true sentiment of why they're breaking off. They're not voting

for Nikki Haley. They were never voting for Nikki Haley. They were voting against Donald Trump.

Exactly.

And that is important.

It's really, really, really, really, really important for messaging.

Okay.

So, so that what I'm gauging, what I'm looking for is the math that says how many Republicans are just anti-Trump and then why, okay?

And the why then becomes very important.

There were three pieces of information that we did not have heading into November 2020. The big lie, Donald Trump,

line with elections, January 6th, and the Dobbs decision. All three of those are incredibly

powerful motivators for Republicans to bail on this guy, and they all happened after the 2020 election.

Okay.

So what we have also seen, if you even watch sort of anecdotal evidence or like kind of watch some of these groups putting out ads of like the local person saying I'm against. This is why I'm

not voting for Trump. I can't do it again. 99% of them say one of those three things.

They're not saying I felt comfortable because Dick Cheney came out, right? So the permission

structure is important, but it's not the primary lead of why people

are leaving. And 30 days out, it's great to kind of show momentum. It's kind of like the yard

signs. It's a good sign in your community. There's yard sides coming out. People are showing

momentum. But the yard sign itself is not convincing people. What is convincing people is those three messages.

And if Harris wants to close a record number of Republicans, they've got to hit those issues and those messages more than they need to put the messengers out front of it.

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