What Leaders Need to Know About a Looming Recession – and Other Global Threats

HBR IdeaCast

Harvard Business Review

Leadership, Entrepreneurship, Communication, Marketing, Business, Business/management, Management, Business/marketing, Business/entrepreneurship, Innovation, Hbr, Strategy, Economics, Finance, Teams, Harvard

4.4 • 1.9K Ratings

🗓️ 25 October 2022

⏱️ 30 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Nouriel Roubini, professor emeritus at NYU’s Stern School of Business, says that a confluence of trends – from skyrocketing public and private debt and bad monetary policies to demographic shifts and the rise of AI – are pushing the world toward catastrophe. He warns of those interconnected threats, but also has suggestions for how political and business leaders can prepare for and navigate through these challenges. He draws on decades of economic research as well as his experience accurately predicting, advising on, and observing responses to the 2008 global financial crisis, and he's the author of "Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends that Imperil our Future, and How to Survive Them.”

Transcript

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0:00.0	So you got the job. Now what? Join me, Eleni Mata, on HBR's new original podcast, New
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0:30.0	Welcome to the HBR idea cast from Harvard Business Review. I'm Allison Beard. A lot of us are
0:50.0	feeling pretty anxious right now. We're coping with the pandemic, political unrest, war, natural
0:55.1	disasters, and now a growing chorus of experts are predicting a looming global recession.
1:00.5	Today's guest is among those expecting economic pain over the next few years. He says a
1:06.3	confluence of trends from skyrocketing public and private debt and bad physical policies to
1:11.9	demographic shifts in the rise of AI to climate change and geopolitical tensions are pushing
1:16.9	the world toward catastrophe. They do call him Dr. Doom for a reason. But he also has suggestions
1:23.1	for how political and business leaders can prepare for and navigate through these challenges,
1:27.3	drawn from decades of economic research and his experience accurately predicting advising on
1:33.2	and observing responses to the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. Noreal Robini is the author of
1:40.3	mega-threats, 10 dangerous trends that imperil our future and how to survive them. Noreal, thanks so
1:46.9	much for being here. Thank you for having me. So I do want to dive into some of these specific
2:00.3	trends. But first, why is this a time of mega trends where all countries, all businesses,
2:06.7	most people are facing the same big problems? Well, I think there is a bit of a quantum shift in
2:13.1	the world and the world economy. You know, when I was growing up in the 60s and 70s, I did not
2:19.2	have to worry about climate change of destroying the world. There were no global pandemics that I
2:24.9	remember. I didn't worry about AI essentially wiping out every job in the planet or having
2:31.8	major war between great powers. Economic cycles and financial cycles were relatively moderate. We
2:39.5	didn't have a huge amount of private and public debt or implicit liability coming from aging. But
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