The New Statesman. It's been four years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The war

has settled into a grinding and uncertain stalemate. What began in February 2022, with a rapid

assault on Kiev, became a long conflict of trenches, drones and shifting front lines across eastern and southern

Ukraine. Despite proving remarkably resilient, Ukraine and the rest of the world must face the question,

what if Russia wins? This is the question that German political scientist, Professor Carlo

Masala, addresses in his book,

if Russia wins, one of the New Statesman's books of 2025. This is Daily Politics from the New

Statesman. In this episode, our senior editor of Global Affairs, Katie Stalard, spoke to Carla

about the war in Ukraine and what the future may hold. I'll hand over to Katie now.

Carlo Masala, thank you so much for joining us here at The New Statesman. Your book lays out a

scenario that starts with Ukraine being forced into what to me is a recognisable peace deal along

the lines currently being discussed and culminates with a Russian attack on Estonia in

2008 that tests NATO's Article 5. If we start just with the high-level framing here,

I think I've heard you say you started working on this idea in late 2023.

What was the geopolitical context at that time? And what was the problem that your scenario

here is seeking to focus on? I mean, I started in 2023 thinking about what might happen if

Russia wins this war because I had the feeling that the debates in Europe were very much

focused on Ukraine and neglecting

the fact that Russia's ambitions are going far beyond Ukraine.

So everyone was focusing on, you know, helping Ukraine.

But if they are not able to defeat Russia militarily then basically

they have to accept some kind of ceasefire

...