What Happens When Social Trust Collapses? | Peter Atwater

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Government, Business

4.8 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 3 November 2025

⏱️ 3 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Episode 447 is the tenth installment in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with Peter Atwater, a recognized expert on the impact of confidence and mood on individual and group decision-making. Peter's work has been instrumental not only in helping his clients, students, and readers understand how people make decisions under conditions of chaos and uncertainty, but also in showing how to use those insights to gain a competitive advantage.

The three begin their conversation by mapping out Peter's Confidence Quadrant and using it to explain how individuals and crowds move between feelings of high and low certainty and control. They explore the immense contemporary pressure people feel to conform—particularly on social media and in an educational system that rewards conformity. They discuss financial nihilism, the search for community in unusual places, and why real, in-person networks, relationships, and conversations matter now more than ever.

The second half of the episode turns to the political economy of confidence: the rise of leader-centric movements, the fragility of "passenger-seat" societies, the lasting impact of COVID, and the "velvet-rope" economy that has transformed everything from airline cabins to financing. They discuss wealth stratification, powerlessness, the risks of a genuine socialist revolution, the search for leadership, and practical ways individuals can regain agency—through epistemic hygiene, disciplined storytelling, and service to others.

Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by:

Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed
Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify
Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io.
Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod
Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas

Episode Recorded on 10/23/2025

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0	What's up, everybody?
0:02.1	My name is Demetri Kaffinus, and you're listening to Hidden Forces, a podcast that inspires investors,
0:08.8	entrepreneurs and everyday citizens, the challenge consensus narratives, and learn how to think
0:14.4	critically about the systems of power shaping our world.
0:18.4	What you're about to hear is the 10th episode in a podcast series hosted by me
0:22.6	and my co-host, Grant Williams, titled The 100-year Pivot. In it, we speak with some of the smartest,
0:29.8	most plugged-in people we know to help position ourselves, our organizations, our families,
0:35.3	and our portfolios for the once-in-a-century economic,
0:39.4	political, and geopolitical reordering that we believe is currently underway.
0:44.7	In today's episode, Grant and I speak with Peter Atwater, a recognized expert on the impact
0:50.4	of confidence and mood on individual and group decision making. Peter's work has been
0:55.8	instrumental in not only helping his clients, students, and readers understand how people make
1:01.8	decisions under conditions of chaos and uncertainty, but also how to use those insights to our
1:08.2	competitive advantage. We begin our conversation by mapping out Peter's
1:12.2	confidence quadrant and use it to explain how individuals and crowds jump between feelings of high
1:18.4	and low certainty and control. We explore the immense contemporary pressure that people feel to conform,
1:25.3	particularly on social media, and in an educational system that rewards
1:29.7	it. We discuss financial nihilism, the search for community in unusual places, and why real
1:35.6	in-person networks, relationships, and conversations matter now more than ever. The second half for our
1:42.6	conversation turns to the political economy of confidence,
1:46.2	the rise of leader-centric movements, the fragility of passenger-seat societies, the lasting impact
1:51.9	of COVID, and the velvet rope economy that has transformed everything from airline cabins to financing.
	...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Previous episode | Next episode

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Demetri Kofinas, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Demetri Kofinas and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.