What happens to Fed independence now?
Marketplace Morning Report
Marketplace
4.5 • 928 Ratings
🗓️ 6 November 2024
⏱️ 8 minutes
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Summary
The Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow to determine the future path of interest rates. The central bank is designed to do its work insulated from politicians, and its independence from political pressures is a cornerstone of monetary policy. But a second presidency of Donald Trump could bring that independence into question. We’ll hear more. We’ll also discuss the connections between Trump, interest rates and the deficit.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Investors move money briskly with news that Donald Trump will be the next president. |
| 0:07.1 | I'm David Brancaccio. We're watching a masterclass in how to adjust financial portfolios with the news this morning of Donald Trump's victory. |
| 0:15.1 | Dow futures are up more than 1,300 points. 3.2%. S&P futures are up 2.2% and NASDAQ futures are up 1.7%. But the bond market is tanking, pushing the 10-year interest rate up to 4.44% the highest since the spring. Let's bring in economist Julia Coronado, founder of macro policy perspectives and a professor at the University of Texas, Austin. |
| 0:38.6 | Hey, Julia. Good morning. They call it the Trump trade, but make sure we understand this. |
| 0:45.0 | Yeah. So the Trump trade is there's going to be tax cuts, there's going to be tariffs, and it's going to |
| 0:51.3 | expand the deficit. And what that means is higher dollar, higher inflation, |
| 0:58.1 | and therefore higher interest rates, but good for stocks. All right. So greater deficit, |
| 1:04.4 | I thought this talk of cutting $2 trillion out of the federal budget, billionaire Elon Musk and hedge funder John Polson |
| 1:12.6 | might help with that? Yeah, that's not what the committee for the responsible budget estimates. |
| 1:18.1 | They estimated that Trump's proposals could add $7.5 to $8 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 |
| 1:25.1 | years. And it's always easier to give sugar rather than spice. |
| 1:30.2 | So cutting taxes is the highest priority. And the market is betting that's what's going to happen, |
| 1:36.5 | especially given the strength of the win. Indeed. Now, look at the rush into stocks. I mean, |
| 1:42.7 | I would have expected people to be buying fossil fuel companies this morning, but it's much more broad-based. |
| 1:48.7 | Yeah, Trump's coming in on a very good economy and a U.S. outperformance. So the presumption is that if you then add tax cuts on top of that, that will be good for growth in a broad-based way. |
| 2:02.6 | Of course, tariffs could hurt growth. |
| 2:04.6 | So this is the immediate reaction. |
| 2:06.6 | How that all plays out over time remains to be seen. |
| 2:10.7 | And as we look, to go back to your previous point, at the higher interest rates this morning, that makes the U.S. dollar more attractive. You're seeing |
| 2:19.4 | all this play out in currency markets today. Absolutely. These moves are huge. So big jumps and longer-term |
| 2:26.3 | interest rates, just as we were hoping they were about to come down and a much stronger dollar |
| 2:31.6 | against most currencies. So the Federal Reserve that starts to meet today |
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