Acts of military aggression between countries declined after the Cold War, but recently that trend line has reversed.

We now have the highest number of active armed conflicts since World War II,

and many more could flare up at any time. If we want to prevent catastrophe, it is helpful to

know which simmering conflicts are most likely to boil over and which boilovers would cause the

most damage. From KERA in Dallas, this is Think. I'm Chris Boyd. For nearly two decades, the Council on

Foreign Relations has been sending out annual surveys to academics, foreign policy professionals,

and officials in the U.S. government, asking what they see as the most likely imminent conflicts

around the world and just how destructive they have the potential to be.

The point of that risk assessment, of course, is taking steps to keep those predictions from coming true.

Paul Stairs is the General John W. Vesse, Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C.,

which has just released the results of its preventive priorities survey for 2026.

Paul, welcome to think.

Thanks very much for having me, Chris. Good to be here.

Broadly speaking, what are some of the reasons there are more interstate conflicts today than a decade ago?

Well, I think we're seeing the fraying of the international order that was created or started to be created by the U.S. after World War II,

in which there were some basic rules and norms of interstate behavior

that were approved.

Like you don't attack your neighbor, you don't undertake aggressive action to occupy territory.

You have the UN created to help mediate various conflicts around the world.

You had a relatively stable relationship

amongst the major powers. And in the last five, ten years, that's all been sort of fraying

as the American-led rules-based order, as it's called, has started to fray at the edges.

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