Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

What's going on, guys? It is Sunday, December 10th, and that means it's time for Long

Read Sunday. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go

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to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. Hello, friends.

Well, in a week where we raced up over 40,000 and even for a moment touched 45,000,

the long reads this week had to be focused on markets and market cycles.

And so for our first piece, we turned to the inimitable Kevin Kelly from Delphi Digital.

Kevin has been a frequent guest on the show, although not for some time, and he wrote a recent opinion piece called Bitcoin

and the predictability of crypto market cycles. TLDR? History shows there's likely a bright year

ahead for Bitcoin's price. Kevin writes, the crypto market may seem like a foreign world to many,

with no real rhyme or reason for how it trades.

Just like traditional markets, though, crypto goes through its own cycles, and these

price cycles are remarkably consistent, including their timing between peak to trough

bottoms, price recoveries, and subsequent rallies to new cycle highs.

We believe we're in the early stages of a new cycle.

Using Bitcoin as our benchmark, here's the typical structure of a crypto market cycle.

Bitcoin's price peaks at a new all-time high.

Bitcoin then suffers a painful 80% or so drawdown.

The price eventually bottoms almost exactly one year after the prior cycles high.

...