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Hello, today is Saturday. It's a special edition of Coffeehouse Shops with Fraser Nelson,

the editor of a Spectator, and David Miles, a professor at Imperial College London,

and formerly a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.

Fraser, if I may, can I start a few?

How likely is it that restrictions will go on July the 19th, and how many of them?

I think it's a near certainty that restrictions will go.

I think there was a very interesting admission from a modeler at Warwick University,

an interview with Unheard a couple of days ago, where he said that they basically,

the decision to delay lockdown was made on assumptions which have turned out to be incorrect.

I mean, they weren't wildly wrong, but people didn't expect the vaccine to be as effective against the delta variant as it's turned out to be. Hospitalizations are moving at a far lower rate, smaller than even the optimistic scenario.

So if you judge by the artistic decided to delay lockdown on the 21st of June. There is no longer a case to do so

on the 19th of July. And as to how many, I'll be very interested to see. I imagine the one-meter

rule will go, perhaps mandatory face masks will go, I'm not quite sure about transport. I guess that's

the big decision for the government, really. And for me, another big question

are the travel bans, the restrictions on being able to go in some holiday? Will they be lifted?

Do we have anything more to fear from Europe, given that our COVID levels are way higher than

anybody else's? That is one of the many questions that we're asking on the 19th July.

David, how do you think the economy will perform once the final stage of the reopening takes place? Well, I think we've had a lot of the

bounce back already from restrictions I've been lifted earlier this year. And my guess is that

for large swathes of economic activity, actually the current level of restrictions

...