Welcome to the Eurointelligence podcast. I'm Wolfgang Munchau and with me, Susanne Monshank and Jack Smith.

Today we will talk about the unwinding of the tariff policy, and especially how Fide will unwind and whether it will unwind and what consequences, what to expect, and what will accompany it and the entire set of policies to expect now that the situation is of clearing up, even the

US administration itself believes that the tariff, at least the tariff levied against China,

is unsustainable. Jack, what are the scenarios we should be looking at? I mean, we probably

here in our team agreed that the 145% tariff on

China is just ridiculous. This is no other word to say this because we know about supply chain

integration, 145% is a number that cannot conceivably be sustained for any length of time.

And aside from the kind of unsustainability of this, you're betting on your ability to win

a staring contest with the Chinese government.

But in any case, yeah, I don't view this is really sustainable.

And I think that what Scott percent said about this recently was completely on point.

At 145 percent, as you say, Wolfgang, it's basically an embargo.

The issue with that is the state of American manufacturing, the extent to which it's been hollowed out, is such that you are going to have producers in America who are going to struggle to get the components that they need for their supply chains and for whatever they're making or whatever they're selling in the U.S. as it is, either because that capacity just doesn't exist in the United States or because it doesn't exist in the kinds of volumes that it would require.

So I think if you look at the state of play right now, assuming status quo that everything

remains as is, you have these very, very high tariffs on most Chinese goods and you have

the kind of 10% level on pretty

much everyone else, with some of these sectoral tariffs being different, is that it's great news

if you're a country with a manufacturing base that's not China, because on the one hand,

at least as the state of play is right now, these American companies are going to need

whatever they need

from somebody somewhere. And if you can provide them, then even if it's at a higher cost than China,

at least you're providing them. But you can also source any inputs that you need from China

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